Unemployment in Belarus has reached a historic low. At the beginning of October, there were 15 thousand officially unemployed people in the country, the Ministry of Labor reports. This is 45.1% less than the percentage of unemployed a year earlier.
The registered unemployment rate in Belarus at the beginning of this month was 0.3%. At the same time, the actual unemployment rate is noticeably higher than the official one: the number of unemployed, classified according to the criteria of the International Labor Organization, in the first quarter of this year amounted to 260.6 thousand people.
The level of registered unemployment in the Brest and Vitebsk regions was 0.5%, in the Gomel, Grodno and Mogilev regions - 0.4%, in the Minsk region - 0.3%, and in Minsk - 0.1%.
Let us remind you that in the whole country the registered unemployment rate at the beginning of September of this year was 0.4%, the same figure was at the beginning of August and July - also 0.4%, and at the beginning of June, May, April, March - 0.5 %.
The number of officially unemployed people in Belarus has never been as low as at the beginning of October. Thus, at the beginning of September this year, 16.3 thousand people were registered as unemployed, in August - 16.6 thousand, in July - almost 17.8 thousand, in June - 19.8 thousand, in May - 21.8 thousand, in April - 22.9 thousand, May - 23.9 thousand.
At the end of 2017, there were 22.9 thousand officially unemployed people in Belarus, 2016 - 35.3 thousand, 2015 - 43.3 thousand, 2014 - 24.2 thousand, 2013 - 20.9 thousand, 2012 - 24.9 thousand, 2013 - 28.2 thousand, 2012 - 33.1 thousand, 2009 - 40.3 thousand, 2008 - 37.3 thousand, 2007 - 44.1 thousand, 2006 - 52 thousand, 2005 - 67.9 thousand, 2004 - 83 thousand, 2003 - 136.1 thousand, 2002 - 130.5 thousand, 2001 - 102.9 thousand, 2000 - 95.8 thousand.
At the same time, the number of vacancies in Belarus has increased at a record level. Thus, as of October 1 of this year, employers reported information about 79.2 thousand vacant jobs. This is 42.8% more than in the same period last year.
“The demand for workers in blue-collar professions amounted to 65.4 percent of the total number of vacancies compared to 60.3% as of October 1, 2017,” the Ministry of Labor clarifies. “The tension coefficient in the labor market of the republic as of October 1 of this year was 0.2 unemployed per vacancy (as of October 1, 2017 - 0.5).”
At the same time, in the Brest and Vitebsk regions this figure was 0.3 unemployed per vacancy, in the Gomel, Grodno, Minsk and Mogilev regions - 0.2, and in Minsk - 0.1 unemployed per vacancy.
Let us remember that in March last year, Alexander Lukashenko demanded that all unemployed people in the country be employed by May 1. It was not possible to fulfill this order, but the number of unemployed people in the country, according to official statistics, decreased. Thus, as of May 1 last year, there were 39.8 thousand officially unemployed in Belarus. In April, their number decreased by 3.6 thousand people. Before this, the number of unemployed Belarusians increased for three months.
In 2017, the number of unemployed people in Belarus, classified in accordance with ILO criteria, amounted to 293.4 thousand people in 2017. This is 2.8% less than in 2016.
What happened?
Belarusians have learned the level of actual unemployment for the fourth time in modern economic history. This happened for the first time in 1999. That year, the first population census took place in Belarus after the collapse of the USSR. Back then there was triple-digit inflation, multiple exchange rates and a $40 salary. Against the backdrop of such economic problems, an unemployment rate of 6.2% of the economically active population (according to census data) could hardly surprise anyone. Officially registered unemployment in 1999 was almost three times lower - 2.2%.
We waited 10 years for the next figure - until the next census. 2009 was also far from an ideal year. The first currency crisis since 2000. Deep drop in exports and domestic demand. Significant deterioration in terms of trade in petroleum products. In such conditions, the unemployment rate was 6.1% against the background of 0.86% officially registered.
The National Bank published the actual unemployment figure for the third time. This was in 2012. The Household Employment Survey had just begun, the economy was growing only on solvents and was gradually recovering from the deepest currency crisis of 2011. The National Bank published the May result of a new Belstat survey - 5.6% of the economically active population. Officially registered unemployed people at that time were a very rare species - they accounted for only 0.65% of the economically active population.
Finally, today Belstat published data for 2016. Last year, 5.8% of the economically active population were unemployed.
What then does the official figure of 1% of the economically active population mean?
Let's understand the definitions. The economically active population is those people who work (employed) or do not work but are actively looking for work (unemployed). If everything is more or less clear with the employed, then with the unemployed it is not entirely clear. According to the official version, the unemployed are people who received the status of unemployed from the employment assistance service. That is, the figure to which we are accustomed is the level of officially registered unemployment.
In censuses and household employment surveys, Belstat uses the internationally accepted definition of the International Labor Organization. According to this definition, an unemployed person is someone who (a) self-identifies as unemployed, (b) is actively looking for work, and (c) is ready to start work as soon as possible (within the next 2 weeks). Since not all such people are registered in Belarus, the number of actual unemployed in our country is traditionally higher than the number of registered unemployed.
Why have there always been more unemployed people in Belarus than were registered?
The main reason is the too small amount of unemployment benefits, which can be received for no more than 6 months. For example, if registered unemployed people had to pay a “tax on parasites,” then the benefits would not be enough. But not all registered unemployed people receive it, but about half of them. You also need to participate in community service to receive benefits. In fact, the costs of obtaining the status of registered unemployed exceed the benefits, so unemployed Belarusians prefer to do without registration.
By the way, in some countries even those who work (in the shadow sector) join the labor exchange - the benefits there are higher than ours, and there is no requirement to participate in public works. Therefore, sometimes registered unemployment exceeds actual unemployment, which, by the way, also indicates shortcomings in the “design” of social protection for the unemployed.
If we have been fed deliberately underestimated data for so long, can we trust the new figures from Belstat?
Can. The Household Employment Survey is based on standard Labor Force Survey methodology. The World Bank helped us develop and implement the survey. The survey covers 7 thousand households quarterly, or 28 thousand households per year - no organization engaged in studying public opinion in Belarus does anything comparable in coverage. It is on the basis of such data that labor market research is carried out and recommendations are prepared for socio-economic policies around the world.
Sensation! There is high unemployment in Belarus!
In some ways this is truly a sensation. With such a prolonged downturn, many expected unemployment to be a couple of percentage points higher. But in fact, our unemployment rate is comparable to Russia (there at the end of 2016 it was 5.4%), much less than in Ukraine (9.6% in the 3rd quarter of 2016), Latvia (9.8% in 3 quarter of 2016), Lithuania (7.5% at the end of 2016) and even slightly less than in Poland (6% at the end of 2016). This means that business adapted to the crisis not only (and not so much) through a reduction in employment, but also through a reduction in wages. And also that Belarusians are really actively looking for work. Similar mechanisms operated in the labor market in Russia.
What difference does it make how many are unemployed? It still won’t affect economic policy...
Indeed, all official documents so far have been oriented towards officially published indicator - the number of registered unemployed. Based on this figure, budget expenditures were planned to support the unemployed and promote employment. A clear example of the consequences of using data on registered rather than actual unemployment is the emergence of the decree on “social dependency.” If at the time the authors assessed the situation, they had taken into account the number of 200-250 thousand unemployed, and not 40 thousand, then the decree might not have appeared.
That is, open recognition of the fact that unemployment in Belarus is significantly higher than 1% can and should become a reason for revising the employment promotion strategy, budget and social protection legislation. And one more small step towards building public trust in the government.
Unemployment- an economic and social phenomenon characteristic of countries with any level of development. Its essence lies in the presence of a certain percentage of able-bodied people who want to find a job, but for some reason are unable to do so.
Causes of unemployment and its types
There are many reasons that cause unemployment. The most common among them are:
- shortage of jobs associated with insufficient development of certain economic sectors;
- low wages in the private and/or public spheres. It is usually caused by excess supply of labor on the market and/or the general underdevelopment of the country's economy;
- economic turmoil in the country (system-wide crisis, default, prolonged recession, etc.), leading to bankruptcy of enterprises and job cuts;
- the presence of artificial barriers in legislation that prevent the employment of different groups of citizens (for example, a ban on holding certain positions without a higher education diploma).
Also, reasons for unemployment may be demographic factors, insufficient information to the working age population about the availability of vacancies, etc.
- youth when the unemployed are young people under the age of 31;
- marginal. It is noted among citizens leading an asocial lifestyle;
- registered. In this case, only those citizens who are specially registered at the labor exchange are considered unemployed;
- hidden. In contrast to the previous type, it unites people who do not register as unemployed and refuse help from labor exchanges;
- unstable. Its level changes dynamically following changes in the country's economy.
Unemployment rate in Belarus
Belarus has its own norms and rules for registering unemployed citizens. According to current standards, only those people of working age who are registered at the labor exchange are considered unemployed in our country. They receive unemployment benefits and are entitled to assistance in finding employment.
According to official data from the Ministry of Labor of the Republic of Belarus, at the end of March 2018, the overall unemployment rate in Belarus was only 0.5% of the total economically active population. For comparison: at the end of March 2017 unemployment was 1%
Table of changes in the level of Unemployment in Belarus from 2000 to 2019
| Year | Unemployment rate in Belarus (Thousands of people) | Registered unemployment rate (% of the workforce) |
| 2018 | 12,5 | - |
| 2017 | 22,9 | 0,5 |
| 2016 | 35,3 | 0,8 |
| 2015 | 43,3 | 1,0 |
| 2014 | 24,2 | 0,5 |
| 2013 | 20,9 | 0,5 |
| 2012 | 24,9 | 0,5 |
| 2011 | 28,2 | 0,6 |
| 2010 | 33,1 | 0,7 |
| 2009 | 40,3 | 0,9 |
| 2008 | 37,3 | 0,8 |
| 2007 | 44,1 | 1,0 |
| 2006 | 52,0 | 1,1 |
| 2005 | 67,9 | 1,5 |
| 2004 | 83,0 | 1,9 |
| 2003 | 136,1 | 3,1 |
| 2002 | 130,5 | 2,9 |
| 2001 | 102,9 | 2,3 |
| 2000 | 95,8 | 2,1 |
| 1995 | 131,0 | 2,9 |
It is noteworthy that the current unemployment rate in Belarus is one of the lowest in the world! For example, at the beginning of 2018, official unemployment in the United States was 3.9%, in Germany - about 6.5%, in Japan - 3-3.2%. And this despite the fact that in terms of their economic potential these countries are many times greater than Belarus.
What is the real unemployment in Belarus?
Such a low level of unemployment in our country is explained by the specifics of its accounting. Official statistics do not take into account people who do not register with the labor exchange, but prefer to look for work on their own. The main reasons why such citizens refuse the help of exchanges are the following:
- the meager amount of unemployment benefits - only 26 rubles (about 13 US dollars) at the beginning of 2018;
- the need to participate in public works for free - cleaning streets, collecting fruits and vegetables, etc.;
- low level of remuneration for vacancies offered on the exchange.
As a result, many citizens prefer not to register, but to look for work on their own, without relying on government help. This leads to an increase in hidden unemployment, which is difficult to identify and account for.
What is the real unemployment in Belarus? Due to the complexity of counting hidden unemployed people, it is impossible to establish it with a high probability. However, some economic experts and sociologists believe that the level of actual unemployment in Belarus may range from 6% to 10% of the economically active population. These are the numbers that appear most often in studies.
At the end of February 2016, the official unemployment rate in Belarus was 1.1% of the country's economically active population. A year earlier, this figure was even 0.8%. Nevertheless, experts argue that there are actually more unemployed people in Belarus. Is this really so, DW found out.
Alarm messages
Already last year, despite the fact that it was the year of the presidential elections, information was constantly received from various Belarusian enterprises about staff reductions. For example, at JSC Grodno Azot alone, Europe's largest producer of nitrogen fertilizers, 309 people were laid off, at Grodnopromstroy - 379, and at Grodnooblselstroy - 257 employees. A thousand people were laid off at the Krichevsky cement plant. There are more than a thousand fewer workers at the Minsk Automobile Plant (MAZ).
At the same time, Belstat reports that as of January 1, 2016, the number of officially registered unemployed in the country amounted to 43.3 thousand people. According to experts, if the current trend continues, when many individual entrepreneurs cease their activities, the number of unemployed by the end of the current year may almost triple. However, how much do official statistics reflect the real situation?
Who is considered unemployed?
Economist Lev Margolin draws attention to the fact that the methodology for recording the unemployed in Minsk differs significantly from that adopted in the European Union. Only people registered with the employment office are considered unemployed in Belarus. Firstly, the expert points out, there are restrictions on the time spent on such registration. If the period has expired and the unemployed has not chosen a new job from those offered, he is removed from such registration.
Secondly, in order to remain registered, you must participate in community service several days a month. Thirdly, a month an officially unemployed person receives a benefit in the amount of 420 thousand Belarusian rubles (about 20 euros).
“All these circumstances clearly do not encourage people to register with employment services,” explains Margolin. Former Labor Minister Alexander Sosnov points out that unemployment benefits in Belarus are the lowest among the former Soviet republics.
Other statistics
According to Lev Margolin, other statistics provide more realistic employment indicators. There are 5.5 million people of working age in Belarus, of which only 4.5 million are employed in various fields of activity. It turns out that about a million people, as Margolin puts it, “slip through the fingers of statisticians.”
The majority of the unemployed, continues Lev Margolin, can be divided into three groups. These are those who work abroad, mostly illegally. Those who are employed in the so-called gray sector - the provision of services and the production of goods without officially paying taxes. And, finally, Belarusians who live off their subsidiary plots.
“If there was a desire to determine the real number of unemployed in the country, it would be easy to do, but the resulting figures would mean the collapse of the entire system of the so-called socially oriented state, which was created and is still so praised by Alexander Lukashenko,” the economist believes.
Will there be jobs?
The President of Belarus at the last meeting with the government on April 12 demanded the creation of 50 thousand new jobs. “In addition, we will continue to pay close attention to social issues, including youth employment and the creation of new jobs. We will do our best, regardless of any market principles, to demand from managers and create conditions for businesses so that they create jobs," Lukashenko emphasized.
Context
Alexander Sosnov is sure that these are empty words of the head of state: “Our people in power, due to their upbringing and education, imagine that if they give a command, the official will run and create a job. This is a utopia and the rose-colored dreams of narrow-minded people.” In fact, Sosnov continues, in order to create new jobs, you must first create conditions for those who can do it. “But Belarusian officials do not know how to do this, as demonstrated by the last twenty-odd years of the country’s current leadership being in power,” the ex-minister emphasizes.
Cuts won't save businesses
According to Lev Margolin, staff reductions at state-owned enterprises occur because too many finished products have accumulated in warehouses. It is not for sale, because, as Margolin put it, the main sales market - Russia - is in the same depressed state.
The only way to sell such products is to reduce their cost, the economist advises. “But in our conditions it is possible to really reduce costs only through wages. And this means that it is necessary to reduce either the average worker’s earnings or the number of such people. And enterprises are now using both of these methods,” states Margolin. In turn, Alexander Sosnov is confident that staff reductions will not improve the situation, “because public sector enterprises are by definition ineffective.”
We expected it to be worse
Data on the actual unemployment rate for 2016 were published on February 27 in the report of the National Statistics Committee. They are very different from the level of registered unemployment. Information on actual unemployment, amounting to 5.8% of the economically active population, was obtained by the statistics committee during a regular sample survey of households.
This process is based on standard labor force survey methodology. The survey covers 7 thousand households quarterly, or 28 thousand households per year.
According to official statistics, 4 million 381.3 thousand people were employed in the Belarusian economy in December 2016, which is 2% less than in December 2015. In January 2017, the number of people employed in the domestic economy decreased by another 14.1 thousand to 4 million 367.2 thousand people, the Belstat press service reported.
The economically active population is people who work (employed) or do not work but are actively looking for work (unemployed). According to the methodology of the International Labor Organization, this category includes people aged 15 to 72 years.
The announced level of actual unemployment is in some way a sensation, writes the director of the Research Center of the Institute of Privatization and Management (IPM) on tut.by Alexander Chubrik. The fact is that many expected that in the context of such a prolonged economic downturn, unemployment would be a couple of percentage points higher. But in fact, our unemployment rate is comparable to Russia (there at the end of 2016 it was 5.4%), much less than in Ukraine (9.6% in the third quarter of 2016), Latvia (9.8% in the third quarter of 2016). quarter of 2016), Lithuania (7.5% at the end of 2016), and even slightly less than in Poland (6% at the end of 2016). This, according to the expert, means that business adapted to the crisis not only (and not so much) through a reduction in employment, but also through a reduction in wages. And also that Belarusians are really actively looking for work. Similar mechanisms operated in the labor market in Russia.
From the history of actual unemployment
Belarusians have learned the level of actual unemployment for the fourth time in modern economic history. This happened for the first time in 1999. That year, the first population census took place after the collapse of the USSR. Back then there was triple-digit inflation, multiple exchange rates and a $40 salary. Against the backdrop of such economic problems, an unemployment rate of 6.2% of the economically active population (according to census data) could hardly surprise anyone. Officially registered unemployment in 1999 was almost three times lower - 2.2%.
Registered unemployed in Belarus are those people who received the status of unemployed from the employment assistance service.
We had to wait 10 years for new figures - until the next census. 2009 was also far from an ideal year. The first currency crisis since 2000. Deep drop in exports and domestic demand. Significant deterioration in terms of trade in petroleum products. In such conditions, the unemployment rate was 6.1% against the background of 0.86% officially registered.
The National Bank published the actual unemployment figure for the third time. This was in 2012. The Household Employment Survey had just begun, the economy was growing only on the back of "solvents" and was gradually recovering from the deepest currency crisis of 2011. The National Bank published the May result of a new Belstat survey – 5.6% of the economically active population. Officially registered unemployed people at that time were a very rare species: they accounted for only 0.65% of the economically active population.
Actual unemployment. In censuses and household employment surveys, Belstat uses the internationally accepted definition of the International Labor Organization. According to this definition, an unemployed person is someone who (a) self-identifies as unemployed, (b) is actively looking for work, and (c) is ready to start work as soon as possible (within the next 2 weeks). Since not all such people are registered in Belarus, the number of actual unemployed in our country is traditionally higher than the number of registered unemployed.
On shortcomings in the “design” of social protection for the unemployed
There have always been more actual unemployed people in Belarus than registered ones, due to the too small amount of unemployment benefits, which can be received for no more than 6 months, writes Alexander Chubrik. Moreover, not all registered unemployed people receive even this meager money. To receive benefits you must participate in community service. In fact, the costs of obtaining the status of registered unemployed exceed the benefits, so unemployed Belarusians prefer to do without registration.
By the way, in some countries even those who work (in the shadow sector) join the labor exchange. The allowance there is greater than ours, and there is no requirement to participate in public works. Therefore, sometimes registered unemployment exceeds actual unemployment, which, by the way, also indicates shortcomings in the “design” of social protection for the unemployed.