Macroeconomics. The essence and main stages of development of world trade

International trade is a system of international commodity-money relations, consisting of foreign trade of all countries of the world. International trade arose during the emergence of the world market in the 16th-18th centuries. Its development is one of the important factors in the development of the world economy of the New Age.

The term international trade was first used in the 12th century by the Italian economist Antonio Margaretti, author of the economic treatise “Power of the Popular Masses in Northern Italy.”

Advantages of countries participating in international trade:

• the intensification of the reproduction process in national economies is a consequence of increased specialization, the creation of opportunities for the emergence and development of mass production, an increase in the level of equipment utilization, and an increase in the efficiency of the introduction of new technologies;
• an increase in export supplies entails an increase in employment;
• international competition creates the need to improve enterprises;
• export earnings serve as a source of capital accumulation aimed at industrial development.

Theories of international trade

The development of world trade is based on the benefits it brings to the countries participating in it. The theory of international trade gives an idea of ​​what is the basis of this gain from foreign trade, or what determines the directions of foreign trade flows. International trade serves as a tool through which countries, by developing their specialization, can increase the productivity of existing resources and thus increase the volume of goods and services they produce and improve the level of well-being of the population.

Many famous economists have dealt with international trade issues. Basic theories of international trade - Mercantilist theory, A. Smith's theory of absolute advantage, D. Ricardo and D. S. Mill's theory of comparative advantage, Heckscher-Ohlin theory, Leontief paradox, Theory life cycle goods, M. Porter's Theory, Rybczynski's Theorem, and Samuelson and Stolper's Theory.

Mercantilist theory. Mercantilism is a system of views of economists of the 15th-17th centuries, focused on the active intervention of the state in economic activity. Representatives of the direction: Thomas Maine, Antoine de Montchretien, William Stafford. The term was proposed by Adam Smith, who criticized the works of mercantilists. The mercantilist theory of international trade arose during the period of initial accumulation of capital and great geographical discoveries, and was based on the idea that the presence of gold reserves was the basis for the prosperity of a nation. Foreign trade, the mercantilists believed, should be focused on obtaining gold, since in the case of simple commodity exchange, ordinary goods, once used, cease to exist, and gold accumulates in the country and can be used again for international exchange.

Trading was viewed as a zero-sum game, where the gain of one participant automatically means the loss of another, and vice versa. To obtain maximum benefits, it was proposed to strengthen government intervention and control over the state of foreign trade. The trade policy of the mercantilists, called protectionism, boiled down to creating barriers to international trade that protected domestic producers from foreign competition, stimulate exports and limit imports by introducing customs duties on foreign goods and receiving gold and silver in return for their goods.

The main provisions of the Mercantilist theory of international trade:

• the need to maintain an active trade balance of the state (excess of exports over imports);
• recognition of the benefits of bringing gold and other precious metals into the country in order to improve its welfare;
• money is a stimulus for trade, since it is believed that an increase in the supply of money increases the volume of the commodity supply;
• protectionism aimed at importing raw materials and semi-finished products and exporting finished products is welcomed;
• restrictions on the export of luxury goods, as it leads to the outflow of gold from the state.

Adam Smith's theory of absolute advantage. In his work “An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations,” in a polemic with mercantilists, Smith formulated the idea that countries are interested in the free development of international trade because they can benefit from it, regardless of whether they are exporters or importers. Each country should specialize in the production of that product where it has an absolute advantage - an advantage based on different sizes production costs in individual countries participating in foreign trade. Refusal to produce goods for which countries do not have absolute advantages, and the concentration of resources on the production of other goods lead to an increase in overall production volumes and an increase in the exchange of products of their labor between countries.

Adam Smith's theory of absolute advantage suggests that a country's real wealth consists of the goods and services available to its citizens. If a country can produce a particular good more and cheaper than other countries, then it has an absolute advantage. Some countries can produce goods more efficiently than others. The country's resources flow into profitable industries because the country cannot compete in unprofitable industries. This leads to an increase in the country's productivity as well as skills work force; Long periods of producing homogeneous products provide incentives for the development of more efficient work methods.

Natural advantages for a particular country: climate; territory; resources. Acquired advantages for a particular country: production technology, that is, the ability to produce a variety of products.

The theory of comparative advantage by D. Ricardo and D. S. Mill. In his work “Principles of Political Economy and Taxation,” Ricardo showed that the principle of absolute advantage is only a special case of the general rule, and substantiated the theory of comparative advantage. When analyzing the directions of development of foreign trade, two circumstances should be taken into account: firstly, economic resources - natural, labor, etc. - are distributed unevenly between countries, and secondly, the effective production of various goods requires different technologies or combinations of resources.

The advantages that countries have are not given once and for all, D. Ricardo believed, therefore even countries with absolutely higher levels of production costs can benefit from trade exchanges. It is in the interests of each country to specialize in production in which it has the greatest advantage and the least weakness and for which not absolute, but relative benefit is the greatest - this is D. Ricardo’s law of comparative advantage. According to Ricardo, the total volume of output will be greatest when each product is produced by the country in which the opportunity costs are lower. Thus, comparative advantage is a benefit based on lower opportunity costs in the exporting country. Hence, as a result of specialization and trade, both countries involved in the exchange will benefit. Example in in this case An exchange of English cloth for Portuguese wine may serve to benefit both countries, even if the absolute costs of production of both cloth and wine are lower in Portugal than in England.

Subsequently, D.S. Mill, in his work “Foundations of Political Economy,” explained the price at which exchange is carried out. According to Mill, the price of exchange is set by the laws of supply and demand at such a level that the totality of each country's exports allows it to pay for the totality of its imports - this is the law of international value.

Heckscher-Ohlin theory. This theory of scientists from Sweden, which appeared in the 30s of the twentieth century, refers to the neoclassical concepts of international trade, since these economists did not adhere to the labor theory of value, considering capital and land productive, along with labor. Therefore, the reason for their trade is the different availability of factors of production in countries participating in international trade.

The main provisions of their theory boiled down to the following: firstly, countries have a tendency to export those goods for the production of which the factors of production available in abundance in the country are used, and, conversely, to import goods for the production of which relatively rare factors are needed; secondly, in international trade there is a tendency to equalize “factor prices”; third, the export of goods can be replaced by the movement of factors of production across national borders.

The neoclassical concept of Heckscher-Ohlin turned out to be convenient for explaining the reasons for the development of trade between developed and developing countries, when in exchange for raw materials coming to developed countries, machinery and equipment were imported into developing countries. However, not all phenomena of international trade fit into the Heckscher-Ohlin theory, since today the center of gravity of international trade is gradually shifting to mutual trade of “similar” goods between “similar” countries.

Leontief's paradox. These are studies by an American economist who questioned the provisions of the Heckscher-Ohlin theory and showed that in post-war period The US economy specialized in those types of production that required relatively more labor rather than capital. The essence of Leontiev's paradox was that the share of capital-intensive goods in exports could grow, while labor-intensive goods could decline. In fact, when analyzing the US trade balance, the share of labor-intensive goods did not decrease. The solution to Leontief's paradox was that the labor intensity of goods imported by the United States is quite high, but the price of labor in the value of the product is much lower than in US exports. The capital intensity of labor in the United States is significant, together with high performance labor, this leads to a significant impact of labor prices in export supplies. The share of labor-intensive supplies in US exports is growing, confirming the Leontief paradox. This is due to the growth in the share of services, labor prices and the structure of the US economy. This leads to an increase in labor intensity throughout the American economy, not excluding exports.

Product life cycle theory. It was put forward and substantiated by R. Vernoy, C. Kindelberger and L. Wels. In their opinion, a product, from the moment it appears on the market until it leaves it, goes through a cycle consisting of five stages:

• product development. The company finds and implements new idea goods. At this time, sales volume is zero, costs rise.
• bringing the product to market. There is no profit due to high costs for marketing activities, sales volume is growing slowly;
• rapid market penetration, increased profits;
• maturity. Sales growth is slowing down, since the bulk of consumers have already been attracted. The level of profit remains unchanged or decreases due to increased costs of marketing activities to protect the product from competition;
• decline Decline in sales and reduction in profits.

M. Porter's theory. This theory introduces the concept of country competitiveness. It is national competitiveness, from Porter’s point of view, that determines the success or failure in specific industries and the place that a country occupies in the world economic system. National competitiveness is determined by the capacity of industry. At the heart of the explanation of a country's competitive advantage is the role of the home country in stimulating renewal and improvement (that is, in stimulating the production of innovation). Government measures to maintain competitiveness:

• government influence on factor conditions;
• government influence on demand conditions;
• government impacts on related and supporting industries;
• government influence on firm strategy, structure, and competition.

A serious incentive to success in the global market is sufficient competition in the domestic market. Artificial dominance of enterprises through government support, from Porter’s point of view, is a negative solution that leads to waste and inefficient use of resources. The theoretical premises of M. Porter served as the basis for developing recommendations at the state level to increase the competitiveness of foreign trade goods in Australia, New Zealand and the USA in the 90s of the twentieth century.

Rybczynski's theorem. The theorem states that if the value of one of the two factors of production increases, then in order to maintain constant prices for goods and factors it is necessary to increase the production of those products that intensively use this increased factor, and reduce the production of other products that intensively use the fixed factor. In order for the prices of goods to remain constant, the prices of factors of production must remain constant. Factor prices can remain constant only if the ratio of factors used in two industries remains constant. In the case of growth of one factor, this can only occur if production in the industry in which that factor is intensively used is increased and production in another industry is reduced, which will lead to the release of the fixed factor, which will become available for use along with the growing factor in the expanding industry .

Samuelson and Stolper theory. In the middle of the 20th century. (1948), American economists P. Samuelson and V. Stolper improved the Heckscher-Ohlin theory, imagining that in the case of homogeneity of production factors, identical technology, perfect competition and complete mobility of goods, international exchange equalizes the price of production factors between countries. The authors base their concept on Ricardo's model with additions from Heckscher and Ohlin and view trade not just as a mutually beneficial exchange, but also as a means to reduce the development gap between countries.

Development and structure of international trade

International trade is a form of exchange of labor products in the form of goods and services between sellers and buyers of different countries. The characteristics of international trade are the volume of world trade turnover, the commodity structure of exports and imports and its dynamics, as well as the geographical structure of international trade. Export is the sale of goods to a foreign buyer and their export abroad. Import is the purchase of goods from foreign sellers with their import from abroad.

Modern international trade is developing at a fairly high pace. Among the main trends in the development of international trade, the following can be identified:

1. There is a preferential development of trade in comparison with sectors of material production and the entire world economy as a whole. Thus, according to some estimates, during the period from the 50s to the 90s of the 20th century, the world's GDP grew approximately 5 times, and merchandise exports - no less than 11 times. Accordingly, if in 2000 the world's GDP was estimated at $30 trillion, then the volume of international trade - exports plus imports - was $12 trillion.

2. In the structure of international trade, the share of manufacturing products is growing (up to 75%), of which more than 40% are engineering products. Only 14% is fuel and other raw materials, the share of agricultural products is about 9%, clothing and textiles are 3%.

3. Among the changes in the geographical direction of international trade flows, there is an increasing role of developed countries and China. However, developing countries (mainly due to the emergence of new industrial countries with a pronounced export orientation from among them) managed to significantly increase their influence in this area. In 1950, they accounted for only 16% of world trade turnover, and by 2001 - already 41.2%.

Since the second half of the 20th century, uneven dynamics of foreign trade have emerged. In the 1960s, Western Europe is the main center of international trade. Its exports were almost 4 times higher than US exports. By the end of the 1980s, Japan began to become a leader in terms of competitiveness. During the same period, the “new industrial countries” of Asia - Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan - joined it. However, by the mid-1990s, the United States took a leading position in the world in terms of competitiveness. Exports of goods and services in the world in 2007, according to the WTO, amounted to 16 trillion. US dollars. The share of the goods group is 80%, and services - 20% of the total trade volume in the world.

4. The most important area of ​​development of foreign trade is intra-company trade within TNCs. According to some data, intra-company international deliveries account for up to 70% of all world trade, 80–90% of sales of licenses and patents. Since TNCs are the most important link in the world economy, world trade is at the same time trade within the framework of TNCs.

5. Trade in services is expanding, in several ways. The first is cross-border delivery, such as distance learning. Another way of supplying services - consumption abroad - involves the movement of the consumer or the movement of his property to the country where the service is provided, for example, the service of a guide on a tourist trip. The third method is a commercial presence, for example, the operation of a foreign bank or restaurant in the country. And the fourth way is the movement of individuals who are service providers abroad, for example, doctors or teachers. The leaders in trade in services are the most developed countries of the world.

Regulation of international trade

Regulation of international trade is divided into government regulation and regulation through international agreements and the creation of international organizations.

Methods of government regulation of international trade can be divided into two groups: tariff and non-tariff.

1. Tariff methods come down to the use of customs duties - special taxes levied on internationally traded products. Customs tariffs are fees levied by the state for processing the transportation of goods and other valuables abroad. This fee, called duty, is taken into account in the price of the product and is ultimately paid by the consumer. Customs taxation involves the use of import duties to hinder the import of foreign goods into the country; export duties are used less frequently.

According to the form of calculation, duties are distinguished:

a) ad valorem, which are charged as a percentage of the price of the product;

b) specific, charged in the form of a certain amount of money per volume, weight or unit of goods.

The most important goals of using import duties are both direct restriction of imports and restriction of competition, including unfair competition. Its extreme form is dumping - the sale of goods on the foreign market at prices lower than those existing for an identical product on the domestic market.

2. Non-tariff methods are diverse and represent a set of direct and indirect restrictions on foreign economic activity through an extensive system of economic, political and administrative measures. These include:

• quotas (provisioning) - the establishment of quantitative parameters within which it is possible to carry out certain foreign trade operations. In practice, quotas are usually established in the form of lists of goods, the free import or export of which is limited to a percentage of the volume or value of their national production. When the quantity or amount of the contingent is exhausted, the export (import) of the corresponding product is terminated;
• licensing – issuing special permits (licenses) to business entities to conduct foreign trade operations. It is often used in conjunction with quotas to control license-based quotas. In some cases, the licensing system acts as a type of customs taxation applied by a country to generate additional customs revenue;
• embargo – a ban on export-import operations. It may apply to a specific group of goods or be introduced in relation to individual countries;
• currency control is a restriction in the monetary sphere. For example, a financial quota may limit the amount of currency an exporter can receive. Quantitative restrictions may apply to the volume of foreign investment, the amount of foreign currency exported by citizens abroad, etc.;
• taxes on export-import transactions - taxes as non-tariff measures that are not regulated by international agreements, such as customs duties, and are therefore levied on both domestic and foreign goods. State subsidies for exporters are also possible;
• administrative measures that are mainly related to restrictions on the quality of goods sold on the domestic market. National standards occupy an important place. Failure to comply with country standards may lead to a ban on the import of imported products and their sale on the domestic market. Similarly, the system of national transport tariffs often creates advantages in paying for the transportation of goods to exporters compared to importers. In addition, other forms of indirect restrictions can also be used: the closure of certain ports and railway stations for foreigners, an order to use a certain share of national raw materials in the production of products, a ban on the purchase by state organizations of imported goods in the presence of national analogues, etc.

The high importance of MT for the development of the world economy has led to the creation by the world community of special international regulatory organizations, whose efforts are aimed at developing rules, principles, procedures for carrying out international trade transactions and monitoring their implementation by member states of these organizations.

A special role in regulating international trade is played by multilateral agreements operating within the framework of:

• GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade);
• WTO();
• GATS (General Agreement on Trade in Services);
• TRIPS (Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights Agreement);

GATT. In accordance with the fundamental provisions of the GATT, trade between countries should be carried out on the basis of the most favored nation principle (MFN), i.e., most favored nation (MFN) treatment is established in the trade of GATT member countries, guaranteeing equality and non-discrimination. However, at the same time, exceptions from the PNB were established for countries included in economic integration groups; for countries, former colonies, which are in traditional ties with the former metropolises; for cross-border and coastal trade. According to the most rough estimates, “exceptions” account for at least 60% of global trade in finished goods, which deprives the PNB of universality.

GATT recognizes customs tariffs as the only acceptable means of regulating the transport industry, which are reduced iteratively (from round to round). Currently, their average level is 3-5%. But even here there are exceptions that allow the use of non-tariff means of protection (quotas, export and import licenses, tax breaks). These include cases of application of programs to regulate agricultural production, disturbances in the balance of payments, and the implementation of regional development and assistance programs.

GATT contains the principle of refusing unilateral actions and making decisions in favor of negotiations and consultations if such actions (decisions) could lead to a restriction of free trade.

GATT - the predecessor of the WTO - made its decisions at negotiation rounds of all members of this Agreement. There were eight of them in total. The most significant decisions that guide the WTO in regulating MT to date were made at the last (eighth) Uruguay round (1986-1994). This round further expanded the range of issues regulated by the WTO. It included trade in services, as well as a program to reduce customs duties, intensify efforts to regulate trade goods in certain industries (including agriculture), and strengthen control over those areas of national economic policy that affect the country’s foreign trade.

It was decided to escalate customs duties as the degree of processing of goods increases while reducing duties on raw materials and eliminating them for some types alcoholic drinks, construction and agricultural equipment, office furniture, toys, pharmaceutical products - only 40% of world imports. Liberalization of trade in clothing, textiles and agricultural products continued. But the last and only means of regulation is customs duties.

In the field of anti-dumping measures, the concepts of “legal subsidies” and “acceptable subsidies” were adopted, which include subsidies aimed at protecting environment And regional development provided that their size is at least 3% of the total value of imports of goods or 1% of its total value. All others are classified as illegal and their use in foreign trade is prohibited.

Among the issues of economic regulation that indirectly affect foreign trade, the Uruguay Round included requirements for the minimum export of goods produced in joint ventures, the mandatory use of local components, and a number of others.

WTO. The Uruguay Round decided to create the WTO, which became the successor to the GATT and retained its main provisions. But the decisions of the round supplemented them with the tasks of ensuring free trade not only through liberalization, but also through the use of so-called links. The meaning of the links is that any government decisions to increase the tariff are made simultaneously (in conjunction) with the decision to liberalize the import of other goods. The WTO is not within the scope of the UN. This allows it to pursue its own independent policy and control over the activities of participating countries in compliance with adopted agreements.

GATS. The regulation of international trade in services has certain specifics. This is due to the fact that services, characterized by extreme diversity of forms and contents, do not form a single market that would have common features. But it has general trends that make it possible to regulate it at the global level, even taking into account new aspects in its development that are introduced by TNCs that dominate it and monopolize it. Currently, the global services market is regulated at four levels: international (global), industry (global), regional and national.

General regulation at the global level is carried out within the framework of the GATS, which came into force on January 1, 1995. Its regulation uses the same rules that were developed by the GATT in relation to goods: non-discrimination, national treatment, transparency (openness and uniform reading of laws), non-application of national laws to the detriment of foreign producers. However, the implementation of these rules is complicated by the peculiarities of services as goods: the absence of a material form for most of them, the coincidence of the time of production and consumption of services. The latter means that regulating the terms of trade in services means regulating the conditions for their production, and this in turn means regulating the conditions for investment in their production.

The GATS includes three parts: a framework agreement defining the general principles and rules for regulating trade in services; special agreements acceptable to individual service industries, and a list of obligations of national governments to eliminate restrictions in service industries. Thus, only one level, the regional level, falls outside the scope of GATS activities.

The GATS agreement is aimed at liberalizing trade in services and covers the following types: services in the field of telecommunications, finance and transport. Issues of export sales of films and television programs are excluded from the scope of its activities, which is due to the fears of individual states (European countries) of losing the identity of their national culture.

Industry regulation of international trade in services is also carried out on a global scale, which is associated with their global production and consumption. Unlike the GATS, the organizations regulating such services are of a specialized nature. For example, civil aviation transportation is regulated by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), foreign tourism by the World Tourism Organization (WTO), and maritime transportation by the International Maritime Organization (IMO).

The regional level of international trade in services is regulated within the framework of economic integration groupings, in which restrictions on mutual trade in services are lifted (as, for example, in the EU) and restrictions on such trade with third countries can be introduced.

The national level of regulation concerns foreign trade in services of individual states. It is implemented through bilateral trade agreements, of which trade in services may be an integral part. A significant place in such agreements is given to the regulation of investments in the service sector.

Source - World Economy: tutorial/ E.G.Guzhva, M.I.Lesnaya, A.V.Kondratiev, A.N.Egorov; SPbGASU. – St. Petersburg, 2009. – 116 p.

1.1 Main stages in the development of world trade

Originating in ancient times, world trade reaches significant proportions and acquires the character of stable international commodity-money relations at the turn of the 18th and 19th centuries.

A powerful impetus for this process was the creation in a number of more industrially developed countries (England, Holland, etc.) of large machine production, focused on large-scale and regular imports of raw materials from economically less developed countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America, and the export of industrial goods to these countries , mainly for consumer purposes.

In the 20th century world trade has experienced a number of deep crises. The first of them was associated with the world war of 1914-1918, it led to a long and deep disruption of world trade that lasted until the end of the Second World War, which shook the entire structure of international economic relations to the core. In the post-war period, world trade faced new difficulties associated with the collapse of the colonial system. It should be noted that all these crises were overcome.

In general, a characteristic feature of the post-war period was a noticeable acceleration in the pace of development of world trade, which reached the highest level in the entire previous history of human society. Moreover, the growth rate of world trade exceeded the growth rate of world GDP.

Since the second half of the 20th century, when international exchange became “explosive,” world trade has been developing at a high pace. In the period 1950-1994. world trade turnover increased 14 times. According to Western experts, the period between 1950 and 1970 can be characterized as a “golden age” in the development of international trade. Thus, the average annual growth rate of world exports was in the 50s. 6%, in the 60s. - 8.2. In the period from 1970 to 1991, the physical volume of world exports (that is, calculated in constant prices) increased 2.5 times, the average annual growth rate was 9.0%, in 1991-1996. this figure was 6.2%.

The volume of world trade increased accordingly. So in 1965 it amounted to 172.0 billion, in 1970 - 193.4 billion, in 1975 - 816.5 billion dollars, in 1980 - 1.9 trillion, in 1990 - 3 .3 trillion and in 1996 - over 5.3 trillion dollars.

It was during this period that an annual 7% growth in world exports was achieved. However, already in the 70s it dropped to 5%, decreasing even more in the 80s. At the end of the 1980s, world exports showed a noticeable recovery (up to 8.5% in 1988). After a clear decline in the early 90s, in the mid-90s it again demonstrates high, sustainable rates.

The stable, sustainable growth of international trade was influenced by a number of factors:

1) development of the international division of labor and internationalization of production;

2) scientific and technological revolution, promoting the renewal of fixed capital, the creation of new sectors of the economy, accelerating the reconstruction of old ones;

3) active activity of transnational corporations in the world market;

4) regulation (liberalization) of international trade through the activities of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT);

5) liberalization of international trade, the transition of many countries to a regime that includes the abolition of quantitative restrictions on imports and a significant reduction in customs duties - the formation of free economic zones;

6) development of trade and economic integration processes: elimination of regional barriers, formation of common markets, free trade zones;

7) gaining political independence of former colonial countries. Distinguishing from among them “newly industrialized countries” with an economic model oriented towards the foreign market.

According to existing forecasts, the high pace of world trade will continue in the future: by 2003, the volume of world trade will increase by 50% and exceed $7 trillion.

Since the second half of the 20th century, the uneven dynamics of foreign trade have become noticeably evident. This affected the balance of power between countries in the world market. The dominant position of the United States was shaken. In turn, German exports approached American exports, and in some years even exceeded them. In addition to Germany, exports from other Western European countries also grew at a noticeable pace. In the 1980s, Japan made a significant breakthrough in international trade. By the end of the 80s, Japan began to become a leader in terms of competitiveness factors. In the same period, the “new industrial countries” of Asia - Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan - joined it. However, by the mid-90s, the United States again took a leading position in the world in terms of competitiveness. They are closely followed by Singapore, Hong Kong, as well as Japan, which previously held first place for six years.

For now, developing countries mainly remain suppliers of raw materials, food and relatively simple finished goods to the world market. However, the growth rate of trade in raw materials lags noticeably behind the overall growth rate of world trade. This lag is due to the development of substitutes for raw materials, their more economical use, and the intensification of their processing. Industrialized countries have almost completely captured the market for high-tech products. At the same time, some developing countries, primarily “newly industrialized countries,” have managed to achieve significant changes in the restructuring of their exports, increasing the share of finished products, industrial products, incl. machines and equipment. Thus, the share of industrial exports of developing countries in the total world volume in the early 90s amounted to 16.3%.

Principles of equitable international trade.

Behind last years The Kazakh economy has undergone many different changes. Some of them benefited her, and some did not. When transitioning to market relations, clear and thoughtful decisions are required. Unfortunately, the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan, headed by the President, did not always make exactly such decisions. In connection with the transition to a market, the integration of the Kazakh economy into the world economy is necessary, which implies some liberalization of foreign economic activity. In order for a country that has taken this path of development to benefit, the following conditions are necessary:

1) Countries liberalizing trade must be
in fundamental equilibrium, and trade liberalization should not disturb it (fundamental equilibrium is understood as the stability of the economic situation of the country, the criteria of which are “moderate” inflation rates, an “acceptable” level of unemployment and balance of payments equilibrium. The first two elements constitute indicators of internal equilibrium, the last - external). However, as is known, the weakening of trade barriers exacerbates the problem of internal and external balance. This gives rise to the need for protectionism, which was recognized by A. Smith.

2) The existence of an international harmony of interests. Through free trade, which is theoretically beneficial to everyone, this harmony of interests is realized. But the matter is complicated by two circumstances. First, more developed countries benefit more from free trade. Secondly, since military interests dominate over economic ones, economic factors alone are not enough to establish or restore harmony, which is not observed in practice.

3) Equality of opportunity ensured by constant scale of production and perfect competition. This condition
implies the absence of any discrimination and the acquisition of advantages by some producers over others, as well as the unhindered movement of goods and factors of production. In fact, in the presence of economies of scale and the consolidation of technological superiority, free trade means one-sided advantages for large firms and advanced countries and leads to a less rational distribution of the world's resources compared to protectionism. Within a given country, the government must limit monopolistic methods of competition and provide special benefits to small businesses that are unable to stand up to giant rivals alone.

4) Availability of an effective international financial system.
The days of the gold standard with automatic regulation of the external balance are over, and in conditions of political and economic instability, it is natural for governments to strive to create reserves of convertible currency, which is achieved through a positive external balance. If a country does not have a structural surplus in the external balance and does not want to put up with a high level of unemployment, it has only one option - to create a surplus in the current account by introducing restrictions on the import of goods and the export of capital.

5) Gains from trade should be distributed evenly between countries. To meet this requirement, all countries must have roughly equal starting conditions in terms of productivity and income. If these conditions are violated, then trade itself cannot lead to equalization of incomes between countries. Moreover, advantages in productivity and income make free trade an effective way to increase the wealth and power of some countries and regions at the expense of others. Advocating for countries at different levels of development to pursue open financial and trade policies means perpetuating existing inequalities between countries.

In this course, the author makes an attempt to systematize knowledge about foreign economic activity and one of its components - international trade, taking into account adaptation to the modern realities of the transition economy and our mentality.

International economic relations exist in three forms: international trade, international labor migration, international capital movement.

The main forms of foreign economic relations include trade, cooperation, and investment.

For a more complete picture of what international trade is today, let us turn to its history.

The history of international trade is presented by some researchers as an evolutionary process that has gone through several stages of its development.

Chronology of the stages of development of international trade

1. Stage - initial (from the 18th to the first half of the 19th century)
2. second half of the 19th century until the start of the First World War (1914)
3. period between two world wars (1914-1939)
4. post-war period (50-60s)
5. modern period (since the early 70s).

Each stage was characterized by certain sources of development, features that reflected the level of internationalization of production and the role of international trade in the development of national economies, and priority methods of regulation.

The first stage is characterized by the influence of the industrial revolution, including the development of transport and communications. In addition, in the processes such trends were observed as the predominance of the export of goods, the growth rate of world trade turnover outpacing the growth industrial production, England's leadership. In regulation, preference was given to a policy of protectionism. At the same time, a policy of free trading began to emerge.

In the second stage, the driving sources of the external environment were the intensive use of scientific and technological progress in the production of goods, the development of transport routes and the quality characteristics of vehicles, and the establishment of monopoly production.

Trade processes began to be dominated by the export of capital, the rapid growth of trade turnover, changes in the balance of forces in the world market due to the decrease in the influence of France and England, and the concentration of trade relations between the most developed countries. In regulation, there is a noticeable increase in trends associated with the transition from a defensive approach to advancing protectionism.

The third stage, the most dramatic due to the consequences of the First World War, expressed in crises (1920-1921, 1929-1933). Two world economic systems began to take shape. In the processes there was a long and deep disruption of trade relations, sharp fluctuations in the volume of trade turnover, and the predominance of the raw materials structure of exports and imports. Regulation was marked, on the one hand, by the strengthening of customs protectionism, on the other, by the collapse of the international monetary system and the formation of currency blocs.

The fourth stage, where we observed the collapse of the world colonial system, the formation of regional entities, the emergence of global international organizations, the strengthening of two world economic systems, became key in the processes of changing the commodity structure of exports. The increase in the growth rate of world trade turnover, taking into account the weakening positions of developing countries, led to the strengthening of the positions of Japan, Germany, Canada and Italy, with a simultaneous decrease in the share of the USA, Great Britain and France in world exports.

In regulation, there is a noticeable transition to a policy of liberalization of trade relations, the implementation of a set of customs and tariff measures under the auspices of the GATT.

On modern stage Sources of the external environment include increased international competition, the strengthening of existing and the emergence of new integration formations, and the collapse of the world socialist economic system. The processes include a sharp increase in trade volumes, a change in the commodity structure of exports, the spread of stable and long-term relationships, and increased countertrade.

In regulation, processes of transition from tariff to non-tariff regulation are also taking place, neo-protectionism is being cultivated as a tool for stimulating export production, and the creation of closed economic blocs is being completed.

Currently, a number of indicators of international trade development have been developed to analyze the state of world trade.

These include:

1. Volumetric (absolute)

• export (re-export);
• import (re-import);
• foreign trade turnover;
• "general" trade;
• "special" trade;
• physical volume of foreign trade.

Resulting

• balance: trade balance, services balance, current account balance;
• balance of payments index;
• terms of trade index;
• “export concentration” index;
• country dependency ratio;

Structural

• commodity structure (export, import);
• regional structure (export, import);
• export diversification index;

Intensities

• quotas (export, import, foreign trade);
• volumes of exports, imports, foreign trade turnover per capita;

Efficiency

• export effect;
• export efficiency (company, product);
• import effect;
• import efficiency;

Speakers

Comparisons

Forms of international trade.

Forms of international trade can be systematized in three areas. The criteria for determining the forms are regulation, the subject of trade, and the interaction of international trade entities.

You can see the classification of forms of international trade in Fig. 1.

Rice. 1. Classification of forms of international trade

International trade theorists give the following typification of international cooperation:

1. By number of items

• single-subject;
• multi-subject;

2. By number of sides

• double-sided;
• multilateral;

3. By territorial coverage

• local;
• regional;
• interregional;
• global;

4. By process stages

• production;
• a commercial;

5. According to the structure of connections

• in-house;
• intra-industry;
• intersectoral;
• horizontal;
• vertical;
• mixed;

6. According to organizational form

• negotiated;
• joint programs;
• joint venture;

7. By connection objects

• production;
• scientific and technical;
• sales;
• marketing;
• industrial cooperation.

Trade in combination with cooperation involves the conclusion of contracts linking the production processes of independent firms. Depending on the degree of integration, a distinction is made between production, sales, production and distribution and trade within consortia.

Compensatory trade in the form of commodity exchange (barter trade), countertrade in the form of repurchase of products or compensation agreements has recently become a popular type of international trade. The latter can be in the form of: actual compensation agreements, repurchase, agreements providing for compensation.

Speaking about the regulation of the world raw materials market, it should be noted that it occurs in two ways: the conclusion of international commodity agreements (the Maraker Agreement on the creation of the World Trade Organization) taking into account development programs, stabilization, administrative management and the creation of international industry organizations, such as associations of oil exporting countries (OPEC).

Features of the commodity market and general trends in world trade.

1. Long-term excess of supply over demand.
2. Market instability.
3. The influence of two opposing sources:

a trend towards a decrease in material and energy intensity in global production;

the process of creating national industry in many developing countries (petrochemicals, ferrous, non-ferrous metallurgy);

4. Increased demand for semi-finished raw materials.
5. Increasing requirements for environmental safety
6. Strong positions of transnational corporations in the markets of coffee, tea, cocoa, tobacco, jute, copper, iron ore and bauxite (80-90% of exports).
7. Export commodities In recent years, it has accounted for 25% of world exports, and taking into account trade in semi-finished products, about 50%.
8. High degree of market regulation - only 20% of transactions with raw materials are carried out through international commodity exchanges.

Features of the global market for mechanical and technical products:

1. Industrialized countries account for 80% of world trade in machinery and equipment.
2. Significant reduction in the life cycle of most products in this group.
3. The trend of transition from single products to complex complexes.
4. High degree of unification and standardization.
5. Use of ISO quality standards.

A generally accepted type of service for consumers in the global market is a guarantee of maintenance.

There are the following types of maintenance:

1. Pre-sale service (service, modification) - is carried out free of charge for the importer.
2. Maintenance during the warranty period (free of charge).
3. Post-warranty service (paid).

Trade in disassembled products is advisable when there is the possibility of unimpeded purchase and sale, subject to a ban on export-import transactions with finished products, the creation of assembly production abroad, with lower duties on components, with significant savings on transport costs. At the same time, this type of trade also has its disadvantages, such as the need to strictly adhere to the quality of the supplied components, high standardization and unification of production, the need effective organization deliveries (batch size, inventory calculation, timing, etc.).

Trade in complete equipment represents the supply and commissioning of equipment as a single, complete technological complex. Forms of agreements for the supply of complete equipment can be in the following types:

• "Technical assistance";
• “general contracting”;
• turnkey delivery;
• "under finished products»;
• for the production and sale of products;
• on BOT terms (construction, installation, technology transfer).

Trade in intellectual work products

Licensed trade is a form of international trade in technologies, patents, technical knowledge, (know - how), trademarks, industrial designs, licenses for inventions. The parties involved in the sale of intellectual property are called the seller - the licensor, the buyer - the licensee.

License - permission to use an invention, industrial design, technology that is provided on the basis of a license agreement.

A patent is a document, a certificate issued to the inventor and confirming that he is the author and has the exclusive right to use the invention. The license agreement may provide for the following payment options:

• royalties;
• lump sum payment;
• profit sharing;
• transfer of securities;
• transfer of technical documentation.

Engineering is the field of activity for the development and creation of industrial facilities, infrastructure, in the form of providing consulting services. The forms of engineering can be the following: pre-project, design, post-project, design and contracting, consulting.

There is also business process reengineering that helps improve organizational structure corporations, optimization of business processes.

Services have recently begun to occupy a significant share in international trade.

The systematization of services in international trade in modern economic literature is as follows:

1. Distribution

• transport;
• communications;
• utilities;

2. Intermediary

• wholesale;
• retail;
• exchanges, auctions, trades;

3. Production

• construction;
• Maintenance;
• advertising;

4. Financial

• banking;
• investment;
• insurance;
• rental;

5. Consumer

• tourist;
• sports;

6. Non-profit

• educational;
• medical.

International Trade Methods

Theorists and practitioners of international trade identify four main methods: direct trade, transit trade, trade through intermediaries, trade through organized commodity markets (international commodity exchanges, tenders, auctions, exhibitions, fairs). At the same time, by method they understand the organizational form and procedure for carrying out foreign trade operations. The latter is reflected in international delivery rules, determining requirements for goods, their cost, packaging, insurance, transportation, transfers of ownership of goods - Incoterms 2000.

For Ukrainian exporters, in order to avoid problems with VAT refund, it is advisable to use the method of trading through an intermediary.

It is advisable that this intermediary be a subsidiary or a company friendly to the exporter. VAT arrears can be minimized if the commodity flows of domestic trade in goods are taken over and claims with VAT obligations are mutually taken into account. Recently, transit trade has become popular. There are two types of transit trade - active and passive. In active transit trade, the Ukrainian enterprise stands inside the chain, manufacturer - intermediary - seller / consumer, while in passive trade, on the edge.

Many Ukrainian companies, without experience in conducting international business and sufficient initial capital, start their business with trade intermediation. They find potential buyers for Ukrainian goods, purchase their products from factories, clear the cargo at customs, charter a carrier, and ship the products to the buyer. One simple question arises. How to position a company or product as competitive in conditions of fierce competition. The simplest strategy is intuitive, also called trial and error in business literature, and is assessed by many theorists and business practitioners as viable. But it is directly related to the ability of senior and middle managers to learn, develop and improve. An important role in international trade is played by the creation and continuous improvement of a quality management system. First of all, this is the quality accepted management decisions, their effectiveness and optimality.

What trade intermediation options can a Ukrainian exporter choose for himself? These are resale, exchange (tolling scheme), consignment, agency operations, brokerage operations, leasing operations, exchange operations, auction operations, tenders.

In the United States and Europe, businesses are turning to the services of export management companies (EMCs) in search of ways to improve their export operations. These companies help exporters explore various export strategies, select the most effective one, implement it and thereby increase the likelihood of successful export. There are no such specialized enterprises in Ukraine. In my opinion, our management consulting companies could play their role. These could serve as an international or export marketing department. At the same time, taking into account the risky nature, it would be possible to provide for the venture nature of financing this cooperation, i.e. equity participation in transactions. Depending on the qualifications of the management and personnel of the exporter’s enterprise, it would be possible to envisage either a successful start and the client will continue to export, or further assume responsibility for selling the company’s products for export.

Except possible use cooperation with KUE, a company can significantly reduce the risk associated with exports by being careful in choosing an export strategy. Here is one example. One of the dynamic exporting firms, Minnesota Mining and Manufacturing Co (3M), relied on three main principles in its export achievements: to reduce the risk of entering the market on a small scale; upon successful start of export operations, create additional product lines; hire local agents to promote sales of the company's products. Another promising exporter, Red Spot Paint, emphasizes the importance of cultivating personal relationships in building an export business. If we try to summarize the recommendations of Western analysts in this area, here is what they advise:

1. KUE or a qualified export consultant should be hired.
2. Focus on one rather than several markets.
3. Entering the market on a small scale in order to reduce the negative consequences in case of failure.
4. Awareness of changes in the external environment and timely response to them.
5. Establishing stable and long-term relationships with local sellers.
6. Deployment of production capacity in the foreign market after achieving significant export volumes.
7. Export is not an end in itself, but only a step towards the development of production abroad.

The success of foreign trade activities of a Ukrainian enterprise is influenced by many factors. Many theorists call them key success factors (CSFs).

It is the CFU that should form the basis of the enterprise strategy, namely:

1. KFU based on scientific and technological superiority;
2. KFU related to the organization of production;
3. Marketing-based CFUs;
4. KFU based on knowledge and experience;
5. KFU related to organization and management;
6. CFIs based on a good reputation and access to financial capital.

One of the important points in successful export activity is understanding and harmonizing it with state and international regulation. Knowledge of the norms of national and international law governing foreign economic activity is a necessary condition for the development of exports (successfully defending one’s rights in anti-dumping processes). At the same time, the use of existing standards to reduce costs when exporting products, as well as the use of one’s influence on the adoption of national and international legislative acts aimed at stimulating export activities is already a possible strategic goal of the exporter’s enterprise.

For the successful development of an export company, it is necessary to correctly position the product, the company in the industry, in the country, in the world. This positioning is based on the results of ongoing SWOT analyses, which take into account the company's internal strengths, weaknesses and threat opportunities. Today's realities require us to have a deep and comprehensive understanding of causes and consequences. Iraq War. We did not have time to come to a generally comparable positioning of individual states as subjects of a system of peaceful coexistence. The military-industrial complex is becoming a client that can no longer be ignored. It requires investment, the production and sale of weapons and public recognition of its merits. Democratic mechanisms in the countries that started this war look hypocritical. It turns out that the right of the strong has not been abolished, and it is unlikely that it will ever be abolished. A possible way out is to try to add wisdom to power in the form of new ideas, concepts, and strategies for the development of human civilization.

For the survival of each individual nation, wise positioning is also necessary, consisting of a combination of national uniqueness of culture, language, traditions, customs and modern cosmopolitan realities.

Ukraine is an interesting and may be a typical subject of international trade if we consider a number of countries with economies in transition. Before the collapse of the USSR, many analysts predicted dynamic socio-economic development, increasing exports, and quickly achieving high GDP per capita. Unfortunately, these predictions did not come true. The Ukrainian economy, after many years of decline in industrial production, today requires financial investment in infrastructure development and increasing export production capacity.

One of the negative factors affecting the long-term competitive advantage of Ukrainian exporters is the failure to use domestic scientific potential in the commercialization of technologies. When forecasting scenarios for the development of the Ukrainian economy, I would like to hope that the emphasis on innovation, new technologies, and high scientific and technical potential will be successfully implemented in the development of commodity production in the high-tech sector. Let’s imagine this picture from the future of Ukraine. We will conduct regular benchmarking at the state level. Ukraine has no natural resources, with the exception of potentially highly fertile lands and hardworking people.

For example, let's take England, which exports educational services in the amount of 12 billion dollars. USA or India, which exports software at approximately the same volume. These are far from the only examples of successful export of intellectual labor products. Actively developing the offshore programming industry, Ukraine, represented by five hundred thousand Ukrainians working in this field, achieved high GDP per capita and sustainable competitiveness in the global market for its goods within five years.

In the meantime, Ukraine, which ranks fourth in the world in terms of the number of qualified programmers, is not able to establish and develop software exports (offshore programming). The shortcomings according to analysts are the same as

in neighboring Russia, Belarus. This is an undeveloped infrastructure, weak state support, a lack of qualified managers, weak English, German, French, and the lack of consortiums of exporters capable of promoting products to foreign markets.

A new vector for the development of Ukrainian exporters in the transition period, in my opinion, is the movement towards an open market with its ideology of transparency of activities. In many ways, these problems can be solved by using corporate portals that would provide information about the company, its vision, mission, strategy, and current financial condition. This is extremely necessary for the development of export business, to strengthen buyer confidence, and to successfully attract foreign direct investment. Therefore, the call is becoming louder and louder in the business press that, as far as possible, enterprises (not just JSCs) publish this information, at least in English.

In my opinion, one of the obstacles to the successful development of an export business is our mentality. It should not limit our capabilities and desires within the framework of necessity and acceptability, but rather integrate with cosmopolitan approaches, i.e. the development of a general philosophical system summarizing the knowledge and experience accumulated by humanity, based on the one hand on the imperative scientific knowledge and combining them with the spiritual trajectories of corporations and societies. In turn, the formation of a progressive and humane worldview of managers is not possible without the use of high and information technologies, high-quality processing of external information, selecting relevant information from it and making quality decisions on this basis, developing and adopting viable, effective personal and corporate business strategies.

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INTERNATIONAL TRADE. STORY
Traditional societies. Until the end of the 19th century. in fact, everywhere the majority of the population were peasants who produced food, and also made tools and many essential items. What they could not produce themselves was bought from nearby towns in exchange for agricultural surpluses (usually small ones) and some handicrafts. Long-distance travel for trade was very rare, since almost all products were produced in small quantities, and transporting goods was fraught with danger and high expenses and took a lot of time. Where international trade existed, it was usually monopolized by government-licensed private organizations such as the British East India Company. It made sense to export abroad only goods that had a high value and low weight: gems, precious metals, spices, some types of fabrics (especially wool and silk), furs and wine. Grain was also sometimes exported abroad, but in small quantities. For centuries, international trade was conducted primarily along the coasts of the Mediterranean and Baltic Seas and along the Asian caravan routes leading to these seas. The main centers of international exchange of goods were the Italian cities of Venice, Genoa and Florence, the German cities of Augsburg and Nuremberg, the trading cities of Flanders (present-day Belgium) and the port cities of the Hanseatic League on the southern and eastern coasts Baltic Sea. However, trade did not play a noticeable role in the lives of ordinary people, and the discovery of America and circumnavigations around Africa and South America little has been changed about it. Nevertheless, the result of the courage and skill shown by the sailors was the shift of European sea trade routes towards the Atlantic and Indian Oceans.
Industrial Revolution. British technological innovations of the 17th and 18th centuries. opened the way to increasing labor productivity, first in agriculture and then in industry. New machines and equipment made possible the emergence of larger enterprises for the production of cheap fabrics, and then steel smelting. These first steps toward mass production led to a dramatic increase in the movement of goods from country to country and were accompanied by improvements in transportation and communications. Soon France and Belgium embarked on the path of industrial development following the British model. Despite the significant progress achieved in the previous century, by the beginning of the 19th century. the volume of international trade in goods and services did not exceed 3% of the value of world output. However, the industrial revolution gradually spread to Germany, the USA and (somewhat later) Japan. In the second half of the 19th century. New branches of production appeared: mechanical engineering, electrical engineering and chemical industries. Soon the products of these industries accounted for a significant share of world trade. Large quantities of cargo were transported over long distances by railroads and ships; The telegraph greatly simplified the dissemination of information throughout the world. As a result of all these changes, the volume of foreign trade increased so much that by 1913 about one third of all products produced in the world were exported beyond national borders. Industrialization spurred demand for raw materials: first for cotton and timber, and then for metals and fuels. About half of the raw materials were mined or produced in European countries; a significant part came from plantations, mines and other enterprises specially created in the colonies to supply Europe with necessary goods. In many colonies, enclaves emerged that had much closer ties to foreign consumers than to the society in which they existed. Despite great importance primary products in international commodity exchange of the 19th century, Europe occupied a central place in world trade. Before the outbreak of World War I, trade between non-European countries accounted for less than 25% of total world trade; trade between European countries accounted for approx. 40%, and for trade between European countries and the rest of the world - 35%. Great Britain remained the world's leading trading country, but its share gradually declined due to the rapid economic development of continental Western Europe, North America and Japan.
The era of free trade. The basis of free trade - the elimination of restrictions on the movement of goods and services from country to country - was laid by economists of the classical school (mainly British). Great Britain since the 18th century. gradually, step by step, protectionism was abandoned, and by the early 1840s, mostly only tariffs on imported wheat remained in force. In 1846, the country, in principle, abandoned protectionism in relation to agriculture. Contrary to expectations, wheat prices were in no hurry to fall, since no country in the world could export large quantities of it to the UK. Be that as it may, the 1850s and 1860s were a period of economic prosperity, and - rightly or wrongly - this prosperity was directly linked to free trade. Other trade liberalization measures taken by Britain and other countries made the period from 1850 to 1880 an era of minimal trade barriers. By 1870, however, British agriculture faced serious competition as a result of the development of ocean shipping. In the late 1870s, after a long economic crisis, Europe (primarily Great Britain) began to move away from the principles of free trade. At the same time, a surge of nationalism, which gave rise to political instability, forced states to seek increased treasury revenue to pay for weapons. In addition, nationalism caused countries such as the United States and Germany to fear that their industrial development would encounter great difficulties if competition from Great Britain, a leader in industrial production, could not be curbed. Under these conditions, the idea of ​​protecting young industries has grown in popularity.
20th century. At the beginning of the century, the movement towards protectionism continued. However, by 1914, when the First World War broke out, protectionism had achieved relatively little success, although the world economy was no longer as free from trade controls as it had been 50 years earlier. International trade, however, was still governed by the gold standard, under which national currencies had a fixed value in gold and imbalances in payments between countries were settled by the transfer of gold in an appropriate amount. No country could maintain the competitiveness of its goods on the world market by devaluing its national currency; In addition, it was impossible to maintain a balance of payments deficit indefinitely. Therefore, all countries participating in international trade sought to ensure the competitiveness of their goods by reducing production costs.
Depression. During the First World War, the gold standard was undermined and replaced in the 1920s by the gold exchange standard, according to which all international payments were made in British pounds sterling and American dollars. This system, however, allowed the USA, Great Britain and those countries that managed to obtain loans from them to maintain deficit balances of payments for a long time. This system eventually collapsed, and its collapse was one of the causes of the Great Depression of the 1930s. Many states responded to the depression by tightening controls over foreign trade. One by one, they officially left the gold standard system, abolished fixed exchange rates and, by devaluing national currencies and introducing tariffs and quotas, tried to increase the competitiveness of goods by devaluing their currencies and introducing tariffs and quotas. This simultaneously protected national production from foreign competition. Such a goal could only be achieved at the expense of other countries - by pursuing a policy of “beggaring your neighbor.” Because many countries could and did play this game, the result was international disunity and world trade stagnated and even declined. Industrial production was declining in most countries and, as a result, industrial demand for primary products was declining, undermining international trade. The policy of national self-sufficiency was taken to extremes in the USSR, in Nazi Germany and fascist Italy, which strived for autarky, i.e. national economic independence. Foreign trade in the USSR was in the hands of the state and centrally planned. Fascist Italy and Nazi Germany developed similar autarky programs, but in these countries government control was less comprehensive and restrictions on foreign trade were less stringent.
Post-war years. The disruption to international trade in the 1930s, exacerbated by the effects of World War II, was so severe that absolute trade volume in the 1940s did not exceed 1913 levels. Concerned about the negative consequences of this stagnation, the Allies began to develop plans for improving the world trade system. It was decided to create the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which was supposed to guard the stability of currencies. The implementation of plans directly related to trade liberalization did not proceed so smoothly. However, in the second half of the 1940s, with the help of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), it was possible to achieve normalization and a certain unification of the trade policies of almost all non-socialist countries of the world. GATT negotiations were conducted in the hope of eliminating as many trade barriers as possible - most notably quotas and subsidies - through the inclusion of a most favored nation clause in the agreement, ensuring that any benefit or concession in trade between countries would automatically apply to all parties to the agreement. Under the auspices of the GATT, a number of multilateral trade negotiations took place: several negotiation cycles in the 1950s, the Dillon Round in 1961, the Kennedy Round in the 1960s, the Tokyo Round in the late 1970s, and the late 1980s - early 1990s. -x - Uruguay round. At the end of the Kennedy Round, industrialized countries' tariffs on manufactured goods were reduced by an average of 10%. The Uruguay Round aimed to further reduce customs tariffs worldwide by an average of 40%, as well as cut trade subsidies and weaken other non-tariff barriers. Attempts to free up trade in temperate agricultural products have been relatively less successful. The main supplier of such products, the United States, put strong pressure on other countries to reduce tariffs, but most countries expressed determination to protect the interests of farmers. For example, during the Second World War, Great Britain faced enormous difficulties in supplying its population with imported food, so its government decided to stimulate the growth of national food production. British farmers were given subsidies that allowed the British population to buy food at world market prices, and farmers to receive a normal income. The production efficiency of British farmers was and remains very high, and they make up a small percentage of the country's population. On the contrary, farmers in some countries of continental Europe, especially France, did need protection due to their large numbers and low productivity. The French understood that they would eventually have to modernize agriculture, but due to social and political reasons did not strive for drastic changes and decided to protect national producers with protectionist measures. When France and other Western European countries formed what would become the European Union, they created a common agricultural policy with complex system managed prices and border charges. Over time, this policy began to cause criticism, giving rise to overproduction and the accumulation of “mountains of oil” and “lakes of wine.” Some, however, argue that high levels of agricultural production provide insurance in an unpredictable world where food shortages regularly threaten. Despite the revival of agricultural protectionism in Britain and other European countries, international trade began to increase after the war. In the period from 1953 to 1960 it increased by an average of 7% per year, and in 1960-1974 - by almost 8% per year. Moreover, the growth of international trade has been faster than the increase in world industrial and agricultural output. Thus, there has been a tendency towards higher specialization of different countries in the production of various goods and services, although the share of border-crossing products in global output by the end of the 1970s did not reach the level of 1913, i.e. approximately 33%.
1970s. Despite a rebound in trade immediately after the end of World War II, differences in inflation rates between countries led to trade imbalances from time to time throughout the 1950s and 1960s. The UK and especially the US could neither control rising prices nor adapt to them by adjusting exchange rates. When exchange rates finally “floated” in the 1970s, they began to fluctuate in speculative foreign exchange markets in accordance with inflation and other economic indicators, - trade unions demanded an increase wages as compensation for rising prices for imported goods (in particular, oil). As a result, measures to reduce imports by appreciating foreign exchange rates were often not effective enough, and states occasionally had to resort to managed or “dirty” floating, in which flexible exchange rates were accompanied by large-scale borrowing, to eliminate trade deficits. Ultimately, the crisis, manifested in a decline in production and rising unemployment coupled with ongoing inflation, led in 1975 (for the first time since 1945) to a drop in international trade by 4%. However, in 1976 it increased again - by 11% compared to 1975, and the value of total exports reached approximately 1 trillion. Doll.
1980-1990s. In the 1980s, the Uruguay Round of GATT began, which discussed agricultural subsidies as well as restrictions on trade in services. However, only by 1993, after eight years of negotiations, the round participants reached an agreement to adopt a new large-scale program for the development of free trade. On January 1, 1995, the GATT was replaced by the World trade Organization(WTO), which is responsible for the practical implementation of decisions taken during the Uruguay Round, as well as for continuing liberalization in the areas of telecommunications, banking, insurance, tourism and shipping. On January 1, 1994, the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), concluded between Canada, the United States and Mexico, came into force. Aiming to eliminate all tariffs and other trade barriers in the region within 15 years, signatories to the agreement view NAFTA as an interim step toward creating a free trade area covering the entire Western Hemisphere. There are also reports from East Asian countries of their intention to form a similar trading bloc.
Development prospects. Despite the increasing integration of world markets, political, psychological and technical barriers to the movement of goods and services between countries still remain significant. The removal of these barriers would lead to a very significant transformation of the world economy, as well as the national economies of all countries of the world. According to many economists, the first obvious signs of such a transformation appeared already in the 1970s. Most of the industrialized countries in the world have begun to realize that newly industrialized powers such as South Korea, Hong Kong, and Brazil are quite capable of producing many types of industrial products (such as clothing, electronic equipment, ships, and automobiles) at lower costs than in developed countries. . It is likely that in the future, the basic manufacturing industries of the developed world will experience great difficulties in competing with the products of new rivals. In order to maintain their current positions in world trade, industrialized countries will have to focus on the production of high-tech products or on the provision of services that require extensive experience (for example, in financial management), and also (in the case of the United States) on the production of food products. Adapting to new trends will require huge and very painful changes. Without these changes, countries now in the industrialized group will lose their advantages in a future world where the ability to produce basic industrial products is likely to become much more common than at any time in the past.

Collier's Encyclopedia. - Open Society. 2000 .

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Structure and stages of formation of international trade

International trade is a system of international commodity-money relations, consisting of foreign trade of all countries of the world. It arose in the process of the emergence of the world market in the 16th-18th centuries. Its development is one of the important factors in the development of the world economy of modern times.

At the earliest stages of human history, entire nations could come into direct contact with each other. Such contacts arose during migrations, mass flights from natural disasters, during forceful divisions of territories, and exchanges.

Residents of the world's first state (Egypt) traded with neighboring tribes 5 thousand years ago, buying wood, metals, and livestock from them in exchange for handicraft and agricultural products. They also organized expeditions for the economic development of new lands. At the same time, the tribes living on the territory of Russia exchanged goods with neighboring tribes. Merchants of services began to join international trade in goods. Phoenician and Greek merchants not only traded goods throughout the Mediterranean, but also provided services for the transportation of goods and foreign passengers. The region of the Mediterranean and the Black Sea, together with the adjacent countries of Western Asia, became the region of the world where the core of the world economy originated in ancient times. Gradually, other economic regions of the world joined it - first South Asia, then Southeast and East Asia, Russia, America, Australia and Oceania, and areas of Tropical Africa. Thus, international trade existed in ancient times, but the world market, covering the trade of a significant part of the countries, and then all the countries of the world, arises only in the process of development of commodity-money irrigation. A great contribution to the development of world trade in goods and services was made by the active spread of market relations, great geographical discoveries XV - XVII centuries, the emergence in the XIX century of machine industry and modern means of transport and communication. The expeditions of Columbus, Vasco da Gama, Magellan, Ermak expanded the limits of the world market many times over, adding new regions to it. Economic ties with these regions strengthened after the start of mass factory production of finished products in the 19th century. first in Western Europe and then in North America, Russia and Japan. These were simple and cheap consumer goods. Their sales were facilitated by steamships, railways, telegraph. As a result, by the end of the 19th century. A global market for goods and services has emerged. Russia acted there primarily as an exporter of grain and other agricultural products, as well as timber to Western Europe, and a supplier of finished products to Asian countries. Imported Western European finished products, materials and semi-finished products.

At the same time, the movement of production factors (capital, labor, entrepreneurial abilities, technology) intensified throughout the world. Flows of economic resources went in one direction - from the most developed countries to the less developed. British, French, Belgian, Dutch and German capital were a noticeable element of capital accumulation in America and Russia, emigrants from Europe mastered the expanses of North America, South Africa, Australia. Then the process of moving economic resources became more complex: capital, entrepreneurial abilities and technology became only import, but also export from moderately developed countries, and underdeveloped countries also actively participated in the export of labor. As a result, the international movement of factors of production becomes reciprocal.

After the world economy took shape at the turn of the 19th and 20th centuries, it underwent significant changes:

1st period - from the beginning of the First World War to the beginning of the 50s. XX century It is characterized by the curtailment of world economic ties (wars, revolutions, the crisis of the 30s) combined with their partial restoration in the 20s. and after the Second World War.

2nd period - 50-70s. The emergence of integration groups (EU, CMEA), the process of transnationalization is underway, the active movement of technologies, entrepreneurial abilities and capital is underway, the world market for loan capital has recovered. Socialist and developing states began to claim a special role in the world economy.

3rd period - 80-90s. Developed countries are moving into the era of post-industrialization, many developing countries are overcoming economic backwardness (China and NIS), former socialist countries are moving to a market economy.

4th period - beginning of the 21st century. Development of integration processes, globalization.

World trade developed at its fastest pace in the post-war period. This was facilitated by:

1) factors influencing the general state of the world economy (scientific and technological progress, the development of state regulation of the economy, the increased power of industrial corporations, competition between two socio-economic systems);

2) processes of international specialization and cooperation caused by the objective need for the development of production forces;

3) the growth of transnational corporations (TNCs, developing specialization and cooperation between their enterprises, contribute to the growth of international trade);

4) liberalization of foreign trade policy, transition to a more open economy;

5) integration (the abolition of trade restrictions between countries included in integration groups contributed to the growth of their mutual trade turnover);

6) the conquest of political independence by the former colonies, which led to an increase in their trade to obtain from industrialized countries the machinery and equipment necessary for industrialization.

International trade growth rates significantly outpace the growth in production of countries participating in world trade relations. A feature of modern trade is that it is increasingly acquiring the character of intra-company trade, when trade relations are carried out between different divisions of one global corporation.

The structure of world trade turnover shows the ratio in its total volume of certain parts, depending on the selected attribute.

The general structure reflects the ratio of exports and imports in percentages or shares. In physical volume this ratio is equal to 1, but in total the share of imports is always greater than the share of exports. This is due to the fact that exports are priced at FOB (Free on board) prices, at which the seller only pays for the delivery of the goods to the port and their loading on board the ship; imports are valued in CIF prices (cost, insurance, freight, i.e. they include the cost of goods, freight costs, insurance costs and other port fees).

The commodity structure of world trade shows the share of a particular group of goods in its total volume. It should be borne in mind that in MT a product is considered as a product that satisfies some social need, to which two main market forces are directed - supply and demand, and one of them necessarily operates from abroad.

Goods produced in national economies participate in MT in different ways. Some of them don't participate at all. Therefore, all goods are divided into tradable and non-tradable.

Traded goods are goods that move freely between countries, non-tradable goods do not move between countries for one reason or another (uncompetitive, strategically important for the country, etc.). When they talk about the commodity structure of world trade, we are talking only about traded goods.

In the most general proportion in world trade turnover, trade in goods and services is distinguished. Currently the ratio between them is 4:1.

In world practice, various classification systems for goods and services are used. For example, trade in goods uses the Standard International Trade Classification (UN) - SITK, in which 3118 main headings are combined into 1033 subgroups (of which 2805 items are included in 720 subgroups), which are aggregated into 261 groups, 67 divisions and 10 sections. Most countries use the Harmonized System for Description and Coding of Goods (including the Russian Federation since 1991).

When characterizing the commodity structure of world trade turnover, two large groups of goods are most often distinguished: raw materials and finished products, the ratio between which (in percentage) is 20: 77 (3% other). By separate groups countries it varies from 15: 82 (for developed countries with market economies) (3% other) to 45: 55 (for developing countries). For individual countries (foreign trade turnover), the range of variations is even wider. This ratio may change depending on changes in prices for raw materials, especially energy.

For a more detailed description of the product structure, a diversified approach can be used (within the framework of the SMTC or in other frameworks in accordance with the objectives of the analysis).

To characterize world exports, it is important to calculate the share of engineering products in its total volume. Comparing it with a similar indicator for a country allows us to calculate the industrialization index of its exports (I), which can range from 0 to 1. The closer it is to 1, the more the trends in the development of the country’s economy coincide with the trends in the development of the world economy.

The geographical (spatial) structure of world trade turnover is characterized by its distribution along the directions of commodity flows - a set of goods (in physical value terms) moving between countries.

There are commodity flows between countries with developed market economies (ADME). They are usually designated “West - West” or “North - North”. They account for about 60% of world trade; between SRRE and RS, which denote “West - South” or “North - South”, they account for over 30% of world trade turnover; between RS - "South - South" - about 10%.

In the spatial structure, regional, integration and intracorporate trade turnover should also be distinguished. These are parts of global trade turnover, reflecting its concentration within one region (for example, Southeast Asia), one integration group (for example, the EU) or one corporation (for example, a multinational corporation). Each of them is characterized by its general, product and geographical structure and reflects the trends and degree of internationalization and globalization of the world economy.

Economy of the G8 countries. G8 countries: their role and significance in the global economy.

The Group of Eight (G8), or Big Eight, is an international club uniting the governments of Great Britain, Germany, Italy, Canada, Russia, the USA, France and Japan. The same name is given to the informal forum of the leaders of these countries (with the participation of the European Commission), within the framework of which approaches to pressing international problems are coordinated.

The G8 is not international organization, it is not based on an international treaty, has no charter and secretariat. G8 decisions are not binding. As a rule, we are talking about fixing the intention of the parties to adhere to an agreed line or about recommendations to other participants in international life to use certain approaches in resolving certain issues.

Since the G8 does not have a charter, it is therefore impossible to officially accept the status of a member of this institution. Since 1996, after the club’s meeting in Moscow, Russia began to increasingly participate in the work of the club. According to an unspoken rule, G8 summits are held annually in turn in each of the member countries. In Russia, the summit took place in 2006 in St. Petersburg (the club meeting that took place in Moscow in 1996 was not recognized as a summit).

The term “Big Eight” is a logical continuation of the term “Big Seven”, which arose in Russian journalism from the erroneous decoding of the English abbreviation G7 as “Great Seven”, although in fact it stands for “Group of Seven” ( "Group of Seven") The first use of the term “Big Seven” was recorded in the article “The Baltics cost Gorbachev $16 billion,” Kommersant newspaper dated January 21, 1991.

The G6 arose at a meeting of the heads of state and government of France, the USA, Great Britain, Germany, Italy and Japan at the Rambouillet Palace on November 15-17, 1975 (since the early 70s, similar meetings were held at the level of finance ministers). In 1976, the “six” turned into a “seven”, accepting Canada into its membership, and during 1991-2002 it was gradually transformed (according to the “7+1” scheme) into the “eight” with the participation of Russia.

The idea of ​​holding meetings of the leaders of the most industrialized countries of the world arose in the early 70s in connection with the economic crisis and the deterioration of relations between the United States, Western Europe and Japan on economic and financial issues.

At the first meeting (November 15-17, 1975), on the initiative of the then French President Valéry Giscard d'Estaing, heads of state and government of six countries gathered: the USA, Japan, France, Great Britain, Germany, Italy. At the meeting, a Joint Declaration on Economic Problems was adopted , which calls for non-aggression in the trade area and a refusal to establish new discriminatory barriers.

Subsequently, meetings are held annually. G8: Russia, USA, Great Britain, France, Germany, Japan, Italy, Canada.

GDP at purchasing power parity (PPP) 2010

This indicator determines the gross domestic product (GDP) or the value of all goods produced and services provided in a country in a given year.

According to 2010 data, among the Sick Eight countries, the United States of America is the leader in terms of gross domestic product ($14.624184 trillion).

	GDP(trillion $)	World rank by GDP	GDP growth (%)
Great Britain
Germany

The USA is the largest economy in the world. Its structure is distinctly post-industrial. Most of the American GDP is created in service industries, which include, first of all, education, healthcare, science, finance, trade, various professional and personal services, transport and communications, services government agencies. The share of material production (agriculture, forestry and fishing, mining and manufacturing, construction) thus remains 20.6% of GDP. Agriculture accounts for about 0.9% of GDP, while industry accounts for less than 20% of GDP.

Among the developed countries of the world, the United States has practically no competitors in its industrial development. The general pattern of the ongoing industry shifts is a noticeable decrease in the share of primary industries and agriculture in the economy. Among the sectors of the material sphere, industry remains the most important; it continues to provide a high level of technical development in other areas of the economy. It is here that today the latest achievements of scientific and technological revolution are primarily accumulated. The United States has one of the most highly efficient economies in the world. A distinctive feature of their economy is its focus on scientific and technological progress and advanced technology. It is a leader in the implementation of scientific and technological progress results in production, in the export of licenses for its discoveries, inventions and latest developments. All this often leads to the dependence of other countries on the United States in the field of science and technology.

At the same time, GDP growth is relatively low and amounts to 2.8% for 2010 (3rd place among G8 countries)

	Population (persons)		Unemployment (%)
Great Britain
Germany

Of the G8 countries, the United States also has the largest population (31,102,800 people.) The economically active population is 154.5 million (including unemployed; February 2010) and the unemployment rate of 9.6% (2010) is the highest among the G8 countries (in second place is France - 9.5%, in third place is Italy - 8.4%.). The minimum unemployment rate was recorded in Japan - 5.2%. This is due to the peculiarities of the national labor market, the main features being lifelong employment in large corporations, as well as wages depending on length of service.

On June 1, 1999, the Japanese government promulgated the "Emergency Employment Policy." The Human Resources Redistribution Fund, created as part of this program, allocates cash grants to companies for one year to supplement the salaries of all newly hired employees - regardless of where they previously worked and their age.

Despite the fact that Japan ranks only 61st in the world in terms of territory (area - 377,944 km²), it is the only G8 country with negative inflation (-0.9% per year) and one of the highest production growth rates among the G8 countries - 7.5% (it is second only to Russia, where this figure is 8.3%)

	Inflation growth (%)	Industry growth rate (%)	GDP growth (%)
Great Britain
Germany

Uniqueness geographical location largely determined the historical isolation of Japan and the peculiar island mentality of its inhabitants. Mineral reserves are extremely scarce. Only limestone, sulfur and coal have any noticeable economic importance. Agricultural land is more than modest - 13% of all land is suitable for cultivation. As for the resources of the world's oceans, Japan's position here is much more favorable - the country is one of the world's largest producers of fish and seafood.

Japan is deservedly considered a recognized world leader in the production of applied technologies for civilian use. Of particular note is the development of technologies that improve the environmental situation.

Among the sectors of non-material production, the development of trade, financial and banking services should be especially noted. Currently, the process of softization of the economy is in full swing, i.e., the increasing role of intangible resources: information, communications, tourism. Business services related to production services are of great importance: consulting, engineering, marketing.

The country has a highly qualified, able-bodied workforce well prepared for practical activities. For the entire country, long (above normal) working hours and a fairly significant share of additional activities at one’s workplace (exchange of experience, quality circles, etc.) have become the norm. There is practically no strike movement.

Japan's GDP is 127,960,000 trillion. dollars - this is 2nd place among the G8 countries and 4th place in the world.

According to the results of the first quarter of 2010, in terms of GDP growth (3.8%) and industrial production growth (8.3%), Russia took 1st place among the G8 countries. Unfortunately, the inflation rate in Russia is also the highest - 6.7%, which is more than 2 times higher than in the other seven countries (for comparison, Great Britain - 3.3%, Germany - 1%, Italy - 1.4 %)

	GDP (trillion $)	GDP per capita ($)	Exports (trillion $)
Great Britain
Germany

trade monetary international

In terms of the volume of goods exports, Germany stands out sharply - $1.3370 trillion (which is about half of the country's GDP).

Exported products are known throughout the world under the Made in Germany brand. Germany does not have large reserves of any minerals. A rare exception to this rule, which applies to the entire Central European region, is coal, both hard and brown. Therefore, its economy is concentrated primarily in the industrial production and service sectors.

Large areas of the country are used for agriculture. Despite this, only 2-3% of the total working population is employed in agriculture. About 50% of the territory is used for livestock raising (cattle and pig farming), grain crops (rye, oats).

Although Germany is known as a "beer country", since 2001 its residents have been buying more wine than beer. In 2005, according to the German Wine Institute, the volume of wine consumed in absolute figures was about 16 million hectoliters, and in the structure of consumed wines the main part (about 40%) is occupied by drinks produced in Germany itself, about 13% are occupied by wines from France, and a few less - Spanish wines.

An important industry in Germany is the automotive industry. Every seventh employee works here, and its share in exports is 40%. Thanks to the five companies Volkswagen, Audi, BMW, Porsche and Opel, Germany, along with the USA and Japan, is one of the world's largest car manufacturers. About 6 million cars roll off the assembly line here every year; Another 4.8 million cars of German brands are produced abroad. Consumers especially value technical innovations in German cars.

Germany's main export partners: France (9.7%), USA (8.6%), United Kingdom (7.3%), Italy (6.7%), Netherlands (6.2%), Belgium (5 .5%), Austria (5.5%), Spain (4.7%)

Russia's minimum export volume from eight countries is 0.3767 trillion. dollars, as well as GDP per capita - $15,900. (This is 3 times less than the leader - the USA ($47,400) and 2 times less than the G8 average).

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