Problems in oil industry, unfortunately, there are a lot of them, but they still require consideration and solutions. All problems can be divided into three groups: economic, social, environmental.
TO economic problems include: the inability of the oil industry to independently provide sufficient quantities of petroleum products to meet the country's needs, depletion of deposits, insufficient financing of the industry, dependence on oil suppliers, low competitiveness of Ukrainian oil industry products on the world market and much more. To solve many of these problems, it is necessary to make every effort to increase the production of the Ukrainian oil industry; this can be done, first of all, through a thorough geoexploration of the subsoil of Ukraine. The objectives of this program should include:
Revealing the most important features the geological structure of the subsoil of Ukraine, the main patterns of the distribution of oil deposits, predictive assessment of resources and the identification on this basis of promising zones, areas and complexes for searching for oil fields;
Study of the oil and gas potential of deep-seated complexes (in connection with the increase in subsoil development to depths of 5-6 km), study of oil and gas accumulation zones, study of the history of geological development and identification of zones of distribution of highly productive reservoirs;
Providing seismic exploration with geological and geophysical information for processing and more reliable integration of materials;
Justification and development of proposals for the further development of prospecting work
In the context of a decline in oil production and, as a result, a decrease in the oil recovery factor of deposits, special meaning problems of maximizing the use of existing reserves arise. Thanks to the efforts of petroleum science and accumulated experience, the Ukrainian oil industry can apply new technologies to enhance oil recovery. High technological efficiency of oil recovery as a result of the use of thermal methods to significantly increase oil recovery from deposits with complex geological structure containing low-viscosity oil.
Due to oil imports, social problems: an increase in fuel prices, which leads to an increase in prices for public transport, food prices, public utilities. In general, there is a tendency for prices to rise in the country, this is due to an increase in the price of oil on the world market. And since the Ukrainian economy depends on imported oil, it can be argued that prices in the country for almost everything are directly dependent on the world price of oil. Every year the financial situation of the ordinary Ukrainian worsens, prices rise, and salaries no, there is almost no middle class left - there are either poor or rich. To solve this problem, it is enough to solve the economic problems above. Then Ukraine’s dependence on importing countries will decrease and prices for petroleum products will go down.
The third group of problems are environmental problems. Many organizations carry out many actions, drawing our attention to the global scale of pollution environment products of the oil industry. As an example, here is an excerpt from an article published on an environmental website on the Internet:
« 4.1.4. Field exploitation
From something new, it is necessary to mention this characteristic feature oil production, such as flaring of associated gases. This is a valuable raw material for chemical processing, fuel, and an agent for enhancing oil recovery (when injected under high pressure into layers) burns in huge quantities, polluting the atmosphere. The reason is the lack of incentives, primarily economic, for the development of modern technologies and more effective use extracted raw materials. However, despite its spectacular nature, in general this problem is of a rather local nature.
As equipment ages, the likelihood of oil leaks increases, especially in on- and off-field pipelines. The mining companies that own them are not interested in making such facts public and have every opportunity to hide them. Such accidents become publicized mainly in cases of particularly severe pollution, usually associated with oil entering surface waters, when it becomes simply difficult not to notice the problem.
Among the problems that are typical for this stage is the abandonment of depleted wells (if they are simply abandoned, then residual oil release can lead to pollution as earth's surface, as well as soils and groundwater), cleaning up garbage dumps and abandoned equipment, cleaning up oil spills, reclaiming land, bringing ecosystems to something close to their original state.
After oil is extracted, it must be delivered to consumers. For this purpose, first of all, a pipeline system is used that is capable of most efficiently transporting such huge volumes.
When constructing new main pipelines, problems may arise related to the choice of their route. Again, the economic interests of making it as convenient and short as possible conflict with the inadmissibility of laying the pipe through territories that are particularly valuable in natural, historical or cultural terms. A serious, although technically quite solvable problem is environmental Safety route used. The matter again comes down to additional costs.
Once the pipeline is created, the environmental problem associated with its operation is oil leaks, the size of which, according to official data, can reach several hundred tons. They generally attract significant public attention when serious pollution occurs as a result surface waters. This happens almost every year. A significant part of Russian pipelines were created more than 20 years ago and are approaching the end of their design life, after which the risk of accidents will increase sharply. At the same time, modern diagnostics and repairs, at least for a certain time, make it possible to solve this problem. The most important strategic direction for reducing this type of accident rate is the choice of terminal location. On the one hand, it should reduce the risk of accidents, and on the other, minimize the severity of possible consequences.”
I believe that the article describes quite fully ecological problems caused by the oil industry. These problems can be solved by a more attentive attitude to compliance with safety precautions when transporting oil, as well as by replacing outdated equipment with new ones. It is necessary to reconsider the methods of disposal of waste and depleted deposits.
The total number of problems makes us think that we can no longer let everything take its course, because the results can have a detrimental effect on both the economy and the daily life population and the ecological state of Ukraine.
Development and location of the oil industry
The Russian Federation has enormous oil resources. The main oil regions are Western Siberia, Volga-Ural, North Caucasus, European North. The continental shelves in the European North and Far East are especially promising.
The main production area is Western Siberia - 2/3 of oil production. The main fields: Samotlorskoye, Ust-Balykskoye, Megionskoye, etc., here the largest program-targeted TPK in the Russian Federation is being formed on the basis of unique oil and gas reserves.
In the Volga-Ural region, the most significant oil resources are in Tatarstan and Bashkorstan.
European North - Komi Republic.
Northern Caucasus - in Chechnya and Dagestan.
About 2/3 of oil is produced using the most efficient flow method.
To date, exploration of European regions and Western Siberia reaches 65-70%, Eastern Siberia and the Far East only by 6-8%, sea shelves by 1%. But it is precisely these hard-to-reach regions that account for 46% of promising and 50% of forecast reserves. 11 Regional economy: Tutorial/ ed. T.G. Morozova, - M: UNITY, 1995, p. 74.
Development and location of the gas industry
The gas industry is the youngest industry in the fuel and energy complex. It is also the most effective. The main fields are located in Western Siberia, where three large gas-bearing areas are distinguished: Tazovsko-Purneyskaya (fields: Urengoyskoye, Yamburgskoye, Tazovskoye, Medvezhye); Berezovskaya (Pakhromskoye, Igrimskoye, Punginskoye); Vasyuganskaya (Luchepetskoye, Ust-Silginskoye). In the Volga-Ural province, gas resources are available in the Orenburg, Saratov, Astrakhan regions, Tatarstan and Bashkortostan. In Timan-Pecherskaya there is the Vuktylskoye deposit in the Komi Republic. On the basis of gas resources, TPKs are being formed in Western Siberia, the Timan-Pechersk province, the Orenburg and Astrakhan regions. The efficiency of gas is high compared to other fuels. And the construction of gas pipelines, even over long distances, pays off faster.
Factors determining the location of the oil and gas industry - quantitative and territorial location of reserves; high-quality composition; transportation conditions; volume and structure of petroleum products consumption; production and processing costs; level of development of technology for extraction and processing 22 Ibid., p. 75..
Factors and features of location of electric power industry. Problems and prospects for its development
In 1995, the Russian electric power industry employed 750 thousand people, or 4.7% of total number employed in industry (1970 - 1.8, 1980 - 2.1%). This is the only industry in which the number of employees is continuously increasing, including over the past 5 years.
Factors for the location of the electric power industry: location of consumers; placement of fuel and energy resources; technological progress in power transmission and generation.
Basic principles of development: creation of energy systems that form a unified network of the country, concentration of production on the basis of cheap fuel and hydro resources; combined heat and power production; taking into account environmental requirements; development of nuclear power plants in areas with a tense fuel and energy balance; comprehensive development of hydropower resources.
There are power plants: thermal, nuclear, hydroelectric power plants; non-traditional sources (wind, tidal - Kislogubskaya on the Kola Peninsula; geothermal - Pauzhskaya on Kamchatka).
Problems of the electric power industry: depreciation of fixed assets, insufficient financing, negative attitude towards nuclear power plants, environmental problems.
Prospects: creation of a unified energy system, creation of nuclear power plants in the European part, construction of thermal power plants using cheap coal from the Kansk-Achinsk basin, widespread use of non-traditional and local fuel sources, development and construction of thermal power plants using natural gas. 11 Voronin V.V. Economical geography RF in 2 parts, part 1, Samara, SGEA, 1997, p. 179.
How energy companies can adjust their business models during the recovery.
Much of the oil and gas industry has had a particularly tough time over the past few years, with weak demand and low prices. It was difficult to make strategic decisions and plan for the future. The industry is only now beginning to emerge from its shock.
Although prices are largely recovering, companies must be cautious when considering new investment projects to develop a more attractive resource base. Continued price increases are likely to be slow and supplies may be constrained.
The collapse in oil prices, which began in June 2014, caused a wave of cost cutting among the management of oil and gas companies. Global holding companies cut capital expenditures by approximately 40% between 2014 and 2016. As part of these savings, approximately 400,000 employees were laid off and plans were canceled or postponed. major projects that do not meet the profitability criteria. These steps, coupled with increased efficiency, are beginning to bear fruit for the industry. A growing number of projects could fail even with oil prices above $20. A good example is Statoil's Johan Sverdrup field in the North Sea, where development costs have dropped to around $25 per barrel. This would have been unthinkable just a few years ago.
Oil prices will stabilize in the near future due to the balance of supply and demand, which has been accelerated in part by OPEC's recent decision to cut production. Analysts have a number of positive forecasts for the oil and gas industry: oil and gas industry capital spending is expected to increase 7 percent in 2017, according to a new Barclays survey. In addition, according to Baker Hughes, there has been a global increase in the number of drilling rigs, particularly in the United States since mid-2016. In addition, we are seeing the first small positive signs of a recovery in M&A as companies pursue asset transactions.
It is possible that we will see a surge in oil prices over the next 5 to 10 years - but due to the hiatus of investment in large projects since 2014, the industry will find it difficult to meet growing demand. A surge in trading activity can itself significantly inflate oil prices for three to five years. Oil gas companies must ensure that their business models are prepared to benefit from this volatility.
If oil prices do not recover, how can international oil companies (IOCs) maintain their cost advantage? Some expenses are unavoidable. For example, OFC oil-field services companies are likely starting to withdraw price concessions they gave to IOCs when the market crashed. This could add about 15 percent to the cost of producing a barrel of oil, which in turn would allow OFS companies to return to breakeven levels.
But oil companies must be careful that other costs are increasing, particularly in the supply chain and in field development. This may prove difficult because the wave of employee layoffs has eliminated significant experience, knowledge and skills. The loss of these opportunities could push up significant costs on development projects if they are not carefully controlled. Progressive MNCs will use innovative advantages digital space as a means to counteract the escalation of costs and capital expenditures, and improve the efficiencies they have already achieved.
Many online destinations in the oil and gas industry are focused on OPEC countries and the United States, but other regions may also play a key role in the near future. For example, in Latin America, the investment climate is improving. Some oil and gas industries are booming and jobs are being created. A prime example is Mexico, where energy reform is opening the door to bringing alternative operators into the country.
Other oil and gas hotspots include Egypt, where BP recently acquired a stake in the giant Zora gas field, and the world's largest oil field in 30 years, where commercial activity resumed at the end of 2016. As oil prices have begun to rise, private investment in the industry is likely to be attracted. This is already evident in two recent high-profile UK North Sea deals: Siccar Point Energy's acquisition of OMV assets and Chrysaor's decision to take over transfer assets from Shell.
So if you are an oil and gas company, look beyond 2017 where you will be faced with structural and political issues within your company; many companies do not see growth potential, organizational structure, systems, processes or approaches must be sufficiently flexible and innovative in a changing and uncertain market. You must be prepared to implement new drilling and production technologies, increase your research and R&D investments. To begin planning for the future, oil and gas leaders might consider some fundamental questions:
- Validity of the existing business model
- In what ways can new capabilities be developed and in what areas?
- How should the asset portfolio develop?
- What type of technology is worth investing in?
How can companies solve these problems?
Here are some business models and strategic activities for the period up to 2020:
1. Corporate strategic goals will increasingly focus on sustainable profitability
The prolonged decline in oil prices has once again emphasized the relevance of companies having plans to calculate profitability under various oil price scenarios. While profitability is always a key metric in the oil and gas industry, production and inventory growth are often more important. However, the shock of low prices and there is a high probability that interest rates will grow in the near future, determine the priority status of improving free cash flow from revenue.
In general, excess profits, profitability and efficiency of capital use have already been firmly absorbed into corporate practices. Other firms, such as national oil companies (NOCs) in the Middle East that seek to emphasize output targets, will have to adapt to the status quo. For such companies, a new emphasis on economic efficiency and profitability, will require significant changes in corporate culture and mindset, and ultimately a realignment of the company's project portfolios. Indeed, in a recent report, Shell is considering selling its interests in the super-giant Majnoon and West Qurna fields in Iraq, where, under the terms of its Maintenance, low profit margins may reflect such a trend.
2. Differentiation of capabilities will be key to future success.
IN last years The oil and gas sector has seen a wide range of operational activities, including onshore production and frontier exploration in increasingly complex and remote locations. Although the main players have traditionally sought to participate in all projects, even these companies do not have the skills or corporate culture to compete in any situation. In fact, the US innovation sector is dominated by companies such as Chesapeake Energy, EOG Resources, and Whiting Petroleum, given their operating models for the unique demands of innovative production methods.
Similarly, in recent years, smaller companies (specializing in exploration and production) with a specific set of capabilities - (for example, a shift in focus on cost efficiency) - have been able to buy mature assets and outperform the giants in specific segments. Such specialization is likely to become more common in the future. In fact, the sector's current uncertainty makes it imperative for companies of all sizes to identify opportunities that are critical to profitable growth, or even survival, and appropriately allocate capital accordingly.
Recent mergers and acquisitions in the oilfield services sector suggest the emergence of new operating models built around specific capabilities. For example, the focus of the recent acquisition of Baker Hughes is an attempt to create a business focused on more efficient management through automation, improved visualization and data analysis.
The model of a single integrated company to find, develop an oil or gas field, and operate it until it is exhausted will be replaced.
3. New business models and forms of cooperation will emerge
The development of the oil and gas sector, which was dominated by universal giants, to a large number niche players will require companies to create new ways of interacting that leverage each individual organization's specific skill sets. The model of a single integrated company that explores, develops an oil or gas field, and operates it until it is exhausted is being replaced by agreements and changes in ownership to ensure the benefit of the company operating the field at appropriate stages of its life.
This is evidenced by the emergence of specialist exploration companies such as Kosmos Energy and mature production players such as EnQuest in the North Sea. And BP's recent alliance with Kosmos to explore assets in Mauritania and Senegal - good example use of technical intelligence skills by major players small companies. Moreover, the relationship between oil and gas giants and oil service companies will develop in the same direction. Large oilfield services companies such as Schlumberger and Halliburton already offer end-to-end management solutions that include handoffs and asset management services, such as the day-to-day operations management offered by Petrofac. However, although this is very important, developing new models of cooperation and partnership will not be easy for any of the large companies, especially for some companies from Middle Eastern countries that prefer complete control over their assets.
4. Review of portfolios due to changes in business models
As the business model evolves, project portfolios will be reviewed to ensure consistency and sustainability. When evaluating a portfolio, you need to look for more than just making a profit when you sell an asset. It should be seen as an opportunity to radically restructure the business, based on forecasts of future conditions and ensuring the company's projects are in accordance with the organization's capabilities. For example, when re-evaluating their portfolios, some companies choose to diversify projects in preparation for a shortage of oil reserves. France's Total took the step as it pursues a plan that calls for up to 20% of its assets to be spent developing non-carbon energy technologies and, through the acquisition of a battery maker, to power its electricity storage capacity. Similarly, Dong Energy, originally an oil and gas supplier, is shifting its focus to renewable energy, using financial flows from oil revenues for development wind power plants.
The need for project portfolio assessment will become increasingly acute as companies engage in a wave of industry consolidation that will last until at least 2018. In the recent past, oil price volatility has made it difficult for buyers and sellers to agree on oil field valuations. However, now that prices have recovered somewhat and there is a growing feeling that a price bottom has been set at around $50 per barrel, the pace of deal-making is picking up pace. In recent transactions, Total and Statoil have completed multi-billion dollar deals in Brazil's deepwater oil reserves, while Exxon has made a bid for Papua New Guinea, InterOil and Noble Energy have acquired US assets. Companies are expected to increasingly focus on asset transactions to build their portfolio economically effective way.
For exploration and production companies, M&A transactions are a critical part of portfolio revaluation. This approach can be used to divest non-core assets and redefine the company's strategy to increase profits from the wave of industry change. In some cases, M&A deals can be the fulcrum for a company's transformation - as was the case with Shell spending $70 billion to buy the UK's BG Group in 2016. The move significantly expanded Shell's position in the natural gas market. Mergers and acquisitions can be used to attract smaller but equally promising new opportunities. This goal has been pursued by Total and Statoil, which have completed several such deals in recent years, which give these companies a foothold in the field of renewable energy sources.
Innovative approaches to retaining and recruiting new talented employees will be essential to achieving long-term success. Employee layoffs during the restructuring of the oil and gas sector are enormous. The cuts, which have been both cyclical and sporadic, have deprived the industry of some of its brightest, talented leaders and discouraged newcomers. There is still a possibility that oil and gas companies will soon resume their personnel policies.
From a management point of view, now is the time to hire new promising and talented employees. Younger employees expect a slightly less traditional workflow - they are looking for more interaction and open communication when making decisions. Oil and gas companies should partner with recent graduates because they can provide new insights that will make it easier to navigate the future.
The world's oil industry covers all developed countries. For many countries, this is the main source of income and an industry that determines the stability of the currency and the domestic economy.
Moreover, oil is the only natural resource, the processing of which allows us to obtain a huge variety of the most important products. This includes fuel (motor gasoline, rocket fuel, diesel fuel), synthetic fabrics, various coatings, and detergents, and even oil refining waste is used in the form of fuel oil.
The activity of the oil industry consists of extracting oil from the depths of the earth, transporting it to oil refineries and further distributing it to consumers. The main regions in which oil is produced are the territory, and.
Extraction: geological exploration of the area to discover oil reserves underground, construction of a drilling rig and pumping the resource to the surface.
Difficulties can be caused by rocky rocks, which quickly wear out the drilling tool. In some cases, explosives are used to overcome such obstacles. Other challenges arise in subsea production, where more complex containment structures are required, a platform floating above the field on pontoons from which the drilling rig is lowered, and transportation of the produced oil to shore.
Next, the oil is sent through pipelines, through which pumping stations provide pumping, or is transported on special tankers by sea. Transportation is also carried out in railway tanks, and over short distances - in road tanks.
The processed product in the form of liquid fuel is usually transported by the same methods. Pipelines are mainly used here, and the difficulties lie in ensuring continuous pumping, which can be interrupted both due to disruption of the pumping stations and due to a malfunction of the pipeline itself, which occurs quite often.
Seismological changes, damage from corrosion, illegal tapping into pipelines and others mechanical damage occur regularly, so each section of the pipeline is constantly inspected by inspection teams, and if a malfunction is detected, repair work is carried out.
However, the peculiarity of the problems of pipeline transport is that internal damage to pipes occurs just as often, but it is impossible to detect it from the outside. Therefore, there are many separate companies that supply cleaning and diagnostic products that are regularly run along with the pumped product into the pipeline.
Another problem is the frequency of accidents and environmental damage. When pipes are damaged, a huge amount of oil is released into the environment, which pollutes the soil and water, destroys the life of many organisms and creates a flammable situation. Fortunately, such emissions are immediately noticeable during regular inspection of the pipeline route, and emergency crews are called immediately.
The largest oil producing companies in the world: , Gazprom Neft, Saudi Aramco, National Iranian Oil Company, ExxonMobil and PetroChina.
The prospects for the oil industry are somewhat clouded by the development of alternative energy: wind, sun. Nuclear power generation creates significant competition (especially with the development of safety systems). In the future, waste recycling may cause a significant blow: this will allow the reuse of many materials obtained from oil refining, which will also reduce demand.
At this time, the economic situation of states is determined by the following important factors: the country’s internal resources and the degree of its integration into the world economic system. The European market is one of the most important export destinations for Russian oil.
Competition with CIS countries has intensified. New players have appeared in the market such as Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, which have created alternative routes for transporting oil to international markets. In this regard, the priorities and capacity of Russian oil flows to the near and far abroad will change.
The oil complex plays a vital role in the development of the Russian economy, ensuring the vital activity of the country's manufacturing and utility sectors, and at the same time brings in the majority of export revenues.
That is why consideration of the prospects for the development of the Russian oil and gas complex on the world market is a priority for the further development of the country, maintaining its economic stability in the world market and a stable position in the leading position in the export and use of oil resources.
Currently, there is a gradual depletion of oil reserves in the world, which is an uneven process. According to available data, the US oil industry has already entered a period of depletion of existing resources.
Prospects for the development of the oil and gas complex.
The development of prepared reserves, including in unique fields, is difficult due to a number of problems: difficult geological and economic conditions, low reservoir properties, remoteness from infrastructure, high environmental risks in remote regions, lack of extraction technologies high-viscosity oils, the unprofitability of putting new sites into development in modern system taxation.Rice. 1. Dynamics of the average depletion of active oil reserves in Russia in 1971-2011, %
Rice. 2 Dynamics of the average depletion of hard-to-recover oil reserves in Russia in 1971-2011, %
The priority direction of policy in the development of the oil industry is to create incentives for the development of new large oil fields in Russia and the development of a hydrocarbon transportation system.
It is worth emphasizing that in the General Scheme for the Development of the Oil Industry, the target indicators of the oil production industry of the Energy Development Strategy have been revised downward: as of November 2010, oil production in 2020 is projected at 96.2% of the 2009 forecast.
According to Oil News, an independent online publication, oil production in the Russian Federation will stabilize at the 2011 level over the next 20 years, and therefore the possibilities for further growth of the Russian economy by increasing oil production have been exhausted. This was stated by the head of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, Elvira Nabiullina.
General scheme for the development of the oil and gas industries.
To better support the oil and gas industry, master plans for the development of the oil and gas industry were created in 2008 and 2009, respectively. The purpose of these documents is to ensure maximization of the economic effect of the industry in the long term without reducing the current level of annual tax revenues (as mentioned earlier).The general scheme determines the promising indicators for the development of the industry:
- Ø level of oil and gas production that ensures maximum economic effect and budget revenues;
- Ø volume of oil and gas processing;
- Ø development of transport infrastructure necessary to ensure domestic and export delivery of target volumes of oil, petroleum products as well as gas and gas condensate.
- Ø The target profile of oil production most optimally ensures the distribution of the burden between the state and the investor, and assumes the stabilization of annual oil production in the period until 2020 at the level of 505 million tons.
- Ø It is necessary to determine the optimal tax regime in oil production, ensuring maximum tax revenues and maximum industry value for the country with an acceptable complexity of administering the regime. (Such work is being carried out by the Russian Ministry of Energy with interested federal executive authorities and NK).
- Ø Maintaining oil refining volumes at the current level of 230-240 million tons while increasing the refining depth to 85% in 2020 will ensure the maximum contribution of oil refining to the country’s economy.
- Ø Equalization of duties on light and dark petroleum products, together with competent management of the differential between the duty on oil and petroleum products, are the key levers for achieving the set goals.
Rice. 3. Data on the General Scheme for the Development of the Oil Industry.
This document also provides for the following change: the Ministry of Energy and the Ministry of Finance, together with Rosnedra, have prepared a project to stimulate the development of hard-to-extract oil fields, which involves significant tax discounts for oil workers. All such deposits, depending on the complexity of their operation, are proposed to be divided into two groups, which will be given different discounts on the mineral extraction tax. Benefits are planned to be assigned to fields for seven years for projects of the first group and for ten years for the second. In addition, a reserve will be created for well abandonment.
Oil workers can receive discounts only if the fields are not currently being developed due to unprofitability, and their level of production as of January 1, 2013 should not exceed 1%. It is expected that the development of problematic deposits will bring the budget up to $2 billion in taxes by 2015, and more than $62 billion by 2032.
In September, the Russian Ministry of Finance agreed to slow down the planned growth rate of the mineral extraction tax (MET), as requested domestic producers gas This means that for independent gas producers, the mineral extraction tax will grow by 17% per year - slightly faster than regulated gas prices (15% per year). For Gazprom, the rate increase will be 12.5% per year.
Rice. 4. Resource base of the Russian gas industry.
Out of 47.8 trillion. m 3 of proven reserves 21.0 trillion. m 3 are in the Nadym-Pur-Taz region (NPTR), 10.4 trillion. m 3 – Yamal Peninsula, 5.9 trillion. m 3 – shelf (including 3.6 trillion m 3 * – Shtokman field in the Barents Sea), 4.6 trillion. m 3 – land of the European part of the Russian Federation, 4.0 trillion. m 3 – Eastern Siberia and the Far East, 1.9 trillion. m 3 – other regions.
At the same time, the expected volume of exploration drilling in Russia as a whole will be 13,140 thousand m.
Forecast of the main indicators of geological exploration for the period 2008-2030. is presented in Table 4. Depending on the results of the work carried out and clarification of geological and geophysical information, the given indicators may require adjustments.
Table 4. Forecast of geological exploration indicators for the period from 2008-2030. across the territory of Russia.
The need for new drilling rigs and the metal necessary for the construction of exploration wells (Table 5) has been assessed preliminary and may change depending on the introduction of new technologies and clarification of geological and geophysical information in the process of exploration.
Table 5. The need for material and technical resources for geological exploration in Russia
In addition, more than half of the projected increase in gas reserves is expected in areas characterized by a complete absence of any infrastructure.
Analysis current state and the forecast for the development of the raw material base of the Russian gas industry shows that if the above volume of geological exploration work is carried out and the corresponding production infrastructure is created in new gas-producing regions, the industry will in the future provide the necessary volumes of gas production.
New gas producing regions
Promising strategic gas producing regions in terms of potential resources and gas reserves are the Yamal Peninsula, the Barents Sea shelf, the water area and adjacent land of the Ob and Taz Bays, as well as Eastern Siberia and the Far East.Deposits in new regions (except for deposits in the Ob and Taz Bays) are characterized by a significant distance from the existing production infrastructure, including current system main gas pipelines, multicomponent compositions of the reservoir mixture, complex mining and geological conditions of occurrence and low filtration properties of productive formations. For their efficient operation in difficult natural and climatic conditions, it is necessary to ensure the solution of a number of complex scientific and technical problems in the field of construction of wells, gas production facilities and gas pipelines in the zone of permafrost soils and offshore fields, and the introduction of new technical and technological solutions that ensure the preservation of the environment. All this will require attracting significant amounts of investment.
Table 6. Forecast of gas production by regions of Russia, billion m 3
Forecast for development of condensate production
In 2007, condensate production in Russia amounted to 15.1 million tons, including in the Nadym-Pur-Taz region - 9.9 million tons (65.5%), in the European part - 4.9 million tons ( 32.5%), in the Tomsk region - 0.3 million tons (2%), in Eastern Siberia and the Far East - 0.1 million tons (0.7%).In the future, condensate production volumes will increase to 26-32 million tons in 2020 and to 31-37 million tons in 2025.
The increase in condensate production volumes is associated with the commissioning of new deep-lying condensate-containing deposits into development.
These, in particular, are almost all new fields of the Nadym-Pur-Taz region, where condensate production volumes will increase from 10.0 million tons in 2008 to 15-18 million tons in 2020 and to 18-23 million tons in 2025.
After 2025, a decrease in condensate production in Russia is predicted to 30-35 million tons in 2030, mainly in the Nadym-Pur-Taz region due to the onset of a period of declining production at gas condensate fields.
Significant volumes of condensate production are predicted in new gas producing regions. It is assumed that on the Yamal Peninsula, condensate production volumes will amount to 5.3-5.5 million tons by 2030, on the Barents Sea shelf - 0.7-0.8 million tons, in Eastern Siberia and the Far East - 4, 8-5.4 million tons