George Zemitan,
Leading Consultant at ITeam

Introduction

The purpose of the analysis of financial economic activity the enterprise is to assess its current financial condition, as well as to determine in what areas it is necessary to work to improve this condition. At the same time, it is desirable to have such a state of financial resources in which the enterprise, freely maneuvering money, is able, through their effective use, to ensure an uninterrupted process of production and sale of products, as well as the costs of its expansion and renewal. Thus, the internal users of financial information in relation to this enterprise are employees of the enterprise management, on which its future financial condition depends.

At the same time, financial condition is the most important characteristic economic activity enterprises in the external environment. It determines the competitiveness of the enterprise, its potential in business cooperation, assesses the extent to which the economic interests of the enterprise itself and its partners in financial and other relations are guaranteed. Therefore, we can assume that the second main task of the analysis is to show the state of the enterprise for external consumers, the number of which increases significantly with the development of market relations. External users of financial information can be divided into two large groups:

1. persons and organizations that have a direct financial interest - founders, shareholders, potential investors, suppliers and buyers of products (services), various creditors, employees of the enterprise, as well as the state, primarily represented by tax authorities. So, in particular, the financial condition of an enterprise is the main criterion for banks when deciding whether it is appropriate or not to issue a loan to it, and if this issue is positively resolved, at what interest and for how long;
2. users with an indirect (indirect) financial interest - audit and consulting firms, government bodies, various financial institutions(stock exchanges, associations, etc.), legislative and statistical bodies, press and news agencies.

All these users financial reporting set themselves the task of analyzing the state of the enterprise and, on its basis, draw conclusions about the directions of their activities in relation to the enterprise in the short or long term. Thus, in the overwhelming majority of cases, these will be conclusions on their actions in relation to this enterprise in the future, and therefore, for all these persons, the future (forecast) financial condition of the enterprise will be of greatest interest. This explains the extreme importance of the task of determining the forecast financial condition of the enterprise and the relevance of issues related to the development of new and improvement of existing methods of such forecasting.

The relevance of the tasks associated with forecasting the financial condition of an enterprise is reflected in one of the definitions of financial analysis used, according to which financial analysis is a process based on the study of data on the financial condition of an enterprise and its performance in the past in order to assess future conditions and performance. Thus, the main task of financial analysis is to reduce the inevitable uncertainty associated with making future-oriented economic decisions. With this approach, financial analysis can be used as a tool to justify short-term and long-term economic decisions, the feasibility of investments; as a means of assessing the skill and quality of management; as a way to predict future financial results. financial forecasting allows to significantly improve the management of the enterprise by ensuring the coordination of all factors of production and sales, the interconnection of the activities of all departments, and the distribution of responsibility.

The degree of conformity of the conclusions made during the analysis of the financial condition of the enterprise, reality is largely determined by the quality of the information support of the analysis. Despite a lot of criticism of financial statements in our country, external entities in relation to the enterprise, as a rule, do not have any other information. These persons use the published information and do not have access to the internal information base of the enterprise.

Classification of forecasting methods

In economically developed countries, the use of formalized financial management models is becoming more widespread. The degree of formalization is directly dependent on the size of the enterprise: the larger the firm, the more its management can and should use formalized approaches in financial policy. in the western scientific literature it is noted that about 50% of large firms and about 18% of small and medium-sized firms prefer to focus on formalized quantitative methods in managing financial resources and analyzing the financial condition of an enterprise. Below is a classification of quantitative methods for predicting the financial condition of an enterprise.

The starting point of any of the methods is the recognition of the fact of some continuity (or a certain stability) of changes in the indicators of financial and economic activity from one reporting period to another. Therefore, in general, a prospective analysis of the financial condition of an enterprise is a study of its financial and economic activities in order to determine the financial condition of this enterprise in the future.

The list of predicted indicators can vary significantly. This set of values ​​can be taken as the first criterion for classifying methods. So, according to the set of predicted indicators, forecasting methods can be divided into:

1. Methods in which one or more individual indicators are predicted, of greatest interest and significance to the analyst, such as sales revenue, profit, production cost, etc.
2. Methods in which forecast reporting forms are built entirely in the standard or enlarged nomenclature of articles. Based on the analysis of data from previous periods, each item (aggregated item) of the balance sheet and report is forecasted and financial results. Huge Advantage methods of this group is that the resulting reporting allows you to comprehensively analyze the financial condition of the enterprise. The analyst receives the maximum amount of information that he can use for various purposes, for example, to determine the acceptable rate of increase in production activity, to calculate the required amount of additional financial resources from external sources, to calculate any financial ratios, etc.

Reporting forecasting methods, in turn, are divided into methods in which each article is forecasted separately based on its individual dynamics, and methods that take into account the existing relationship between individual articles both within the same reporting form and from different forms. Indeed, different lines of reporting should change in dynamics in a coordinated manner, since they characterize the same economic system.

Depending on the type of model used, all forecasting methods can be divided into three large groups (see Figure 1):

1.Methods expert assessments, which provide for a multi-stage survey of experts according to special schemes and processing of the results obtained using economic statistics tools. These are the simplest and most popular methods, the history of which goes back more than one millennium. The application of these methods in practice, usually, is to use the experience and knowledge of trade, financial, production managers of the enterprise. As a rule, this ensures that the decision is made in the simplest and fastest way. The disadvantage is the reduction or complete absence of personal responsibility for the forecast made. Expert assessments are used not only to predict the values ​​of indicators, but also in analytical work, for example, to develop weight coefficients, threshold values ​​for controlled indicators, etc.
2.Stochastic Methods, suggesting the probabilistic nature of both the forecast and the relationship between the studied indicators. The probability of obtaining an accurate forecast increases with the increase in the number of empirical data. These methods occupy a leading place in terms of formalized forecasting and vary significantly in the complexity of the algorithms used. The simplest example is the study of sales trends by analyzing the growth rates of sales indicators. Forecasting results obtained by statistical methods are subject to random fluctuations in data, which can sometimes lead to serious miscalculations.

Rice. one. Classification of methods for predicting the financial condition of an enterprise

Stochastic methods can be divided into three typical groups, which will be named below. The choice for forecasting the method of one group or another depends on many factors, including the available initial data.

The first situation is the presence of a time series- occurs most often in practice: Financial Manager or the analyst has at his disposal data on the dynamics of the indicator, on the basis of which it is required to build an acceptable forecast. In other words, we are talking about highlighting a trend. This can be done in various ways, the main of which are simple dynamic analysis and analysis using autoregressive dependencies.

The second situation is presence of a spatial aggregate- takes place in the event that for some reason there are no statistical data on the indicator or there is reason to believe that its value is determined by the influence of certain factors. In this case, multivariate regression analysis can be used, which is an extension of a simple dynamic analysis to a multivariate case.

The third situation is presence of spatio-temporal aggregate- takes place when: a) time series are not long enough to build statistically significant forecasts; b) the analyst intends to take into account in the forecast the influence of factors that differ in economic nature and their dynamics. The initial data are matrices of indicators, each of which represents the values ​​of the same indicators for different periods or for different consecutive dates.

3. Deterministic Methods, suggesting the presence of functional or rigidly determined relationships, when each value of the factor attribute corresponds to a well-defined non-random value of the resultant attribute. As an example, we can cite the dependencies implemented in the framework of the well-known DuPont factor analysis model. Using this model and substituting predictive values ​​into it various factors, for example, sales proceeds, asset turnover, degree of financial dependence, and others, you can calculate the predicted value of one of the main performance indicators - the return on equity ratio.

Others are very good example the form of the income statement is used, which is a tabular implementation of a rigidly determined factor model that links the effective attribute (profit) with factors (sales income, cost level, tax rate level, etc.).

Here it is impossible not to mention another group of methods based on the construction of dynamic enterprise simulation models. Such models include data on planned purchases of materials and components, production and sales volumes, cost structure, investment activity of the enterprise, tax environment, etc. The processing of this information within the framework of a single financial model makes it possible to assess the forecast financial condition of the company with a very high degree of accuracy. In reality, such models can only be built using personal computers, which make it possible to quickly perform a huge amount of necessary calculations. However, these methods are not the subject of this work, since they must be based on a much broader Information Support than the financial statements of the enterprise, which makes it impossible for external analysts to use them.

Formalized models for forecasting the financial condition of an enterprise are criticized on two main points: (a) during modeling, several forecast options can, and in fact should, be developed, and it is impossible to determine which one is better using formalized criteria; (b) any financial model only simplistically expresses the relationship between economic indicators. In fact, both of these theses are unlikely to have a negative connotation; they only indicate to the analyst the existing limitations of any forecasting method, which must be kept in mind when using the forecast results.

Overview of basic forecasting methods

Simple Dynamic Analysis

Each time series value can consist of the following components: trend, cyclical, seasonal and random fluctuations. The method of simple dynamic analysis is used to determine the trend of the available time series. This component can be considered as the general direction of changes in the values ​​of the series or the main trend of the series. Cyclical fluctuations are called fluctuations about the trend line for periods longer than one year. Such fluctuations in the series of financial and economic indicators often correspond to cycles business activity: a sharp decline, recovery, rapid growth and stagnation. Seasonal fluctuations are called periodic changes in the values ​​of the series throughout the year. They can be isolated after analyzing the trend and cyclical fluctuations. Finally, random fluctuations are identified by detrending, cyclical and seasonal fluctuations for given value. The remaining value after this is the random deviation, which must be taken into account when determining the likely accuracy of the adopted forecasting model.

The method of simple dynamic analysis proceeds from the premise that the predicted indicator (Y) changes directly (inversely) proportionally over time. Therefore, to determine the predicted values ​​of the indicator Y, for example, the following dependence is built:

where t is the ordinal number of the period.

The parameters of the regression equation (a, b) are usually found using the least squares method. There are also other adequacy criteria (loss functions), such as the least modulus method or the minimax method. Substituting the desired value of t into formula (1), we can calculate the required forecast.

This method is based on a fairly obvious premise that economic processes have certain specifics. They differ, firstly, in interdependence and, secondly, in a certain inertia. The latter means that the value of almost any economic indicator at time t depends in a certain way on the state of this indicator in previous periods (in this case, we abstract from the influence of other factors), i.e. the values ​​of the predicted indicator in past periods should be considered as factor signs. The equation of autoregressive dependence in the most general form has the form:

where Yt is the predicted value of the indicator Y at time t;
Yt-i - the value of the indicator Y at the time (t-i);
Ai - i-th regression coefficient.

Sufficiently accurate predictive values ​​can be obtained already at k = 1. In practice, a modification of equation (2) is also often used, introducing the time period t as a factor, that is, combining the methods of autoregression and simple dynamic analysis. In this case, the regression equation will look like:

The regression coefficients of this equation can be found using the least squares method. The corresponding system of normal equations will look like:

where j is the length of the time series of the indicator Y, reduced by one.

To characterize the adequacy of the autoregressive dependence equation, you can use the value of the average relative linear deviation:

where Y*i - calculated value indicator Y at time i;
Yi - the actual value of the indicator Y at time i.

If e< 0,15 , считается, что уравнение авторегрессии может использоваться при определении тренда временного ряда экономического показателя в прогнозных целях. Ввиду простоты расчета критерий e достаточно часто применяется при построении регрессионных моделей.

Multivariate regression analysis

The method is used to build a forecast of any indicator, taking into account the existing relationships between it and other indicators. First, as a result of a qualitative analysis, k factors (X1, X2,..., Xk) are identified that, according to the analyst, affect the change in the predicted indicator Y, and most often a linear regression dependence of the type

where Ai are regression coefficients, i = 1,2,...,k.

The values ​​of the regression coefficients (A0, A1, A2,..., Ak) are determined as a result of complex mathematical calculations, which are usually carried out using standard statistical computer programs.

When using this method, finding the right set of interrelated features, the direction of the causal relationship between them and the type of this relationship, which is not always linear, is of decisive importance. The influence of these elements on the accuracy of the forecast will be discussed below.

Forecasting based on proportional dependencies

The basis for the development of the method of proportional dependencies of indicators was the two main characteristics of any economic system- interconnection and inertia.

One of the obvious features of an existing commercial organization as a system is the naturally coordinated interaction of its individual elements (both qualitative and measurable). This means that many indicators, even if they are not interconnected by formalized algorithms, nevertheless change in dynamics in a coordinated manner. Obviously, if a certain system is in a state of equilibrium, then its individual elements cannot act chaotically, at least the variability of actions has certain limitations.

The second characteristic - inertia - in application to the company's activities is also quite obvious. Its meaning is that in a stable operating company with well-established technological processes and commercial connections there can be no sharp "bursts" in relation to key quantitative characteristics. So, if the share of production costs in total revenue in the reporting period was 70%, as a rule, there is no reason to believe that in the next period the value of this indicator will change significantly.

The method of proportional dependencies of indicators is based on the thesis that it is possible to identify a certain indicator that is the most important from the standpoint of the characteristics of the company's activities, which, thanks to this property, could be used as a base for determining the forecast values ​​of other indicators in the sense that they are "tied" to the basic indicator using the simplest proportional dependencies. As a base indicator, either sales proceeds or the cost of sold (manufactured) products are most often used.

The sequence of procedures for this method is as follows:

1. The base figure B is identified (for example, sales revenue).
2. Derived indicators are determined, the forecasting of which is of interest (in particular, they may include accounting indicators in a particular nomenclature of articles, since it is reporting that is a formalized model that gives a fairly objective idea of ​​the economic potential of the company). As a rule, the necessity and expediency of allocating one or another derived indicator is determined by its significance in the reporting.
3. For each derived indicator P, the form of its dependence on the base indicator is set: P=f(B). Most often, the linear form of this dependence is chosen.
4. When developing forecast reporting, first of all, a forecast version of the income statement is compiled, since in this case profit is calculated, which is one of the initial indicators for the balance being developed.
5. When predicting the balance, first of all, the expected values ​​of its active items are calculated. As for passive items, work with them is completed using the method of balance linking indicators, namely, the need for external sources of financing is most often revealed.
6. Forecasting itself is carried out in the course of simulation modeling, when the rate of change of the base indicator and independent factors are varied during calculations, and its result is the construction of several options for forecasting reporting. The choice of the best of them and the use in the future as a guideline is already done using non-formalized criteria.

Balance model for forecasting the economic potential of an enterprise

The essence of this method is clear already from its name. The balance of an enterprise can be described by various balance equations that reflect the relationship between various assets and liabilities of an enterprise. The simplest of them is the main balance equation, which has the form:

A = E + L (7),

where A - assets, E - equity, L - liabilities of the enterprise.

The left side of the equation reflects the material and financial resources of the enterprise, the right side - the sources of their formation. The predicted change in the resource potential should be accompanied by: a) an inevitable corresponding change in the sources of funds; b) possible changes in their ratio. Since model (7) is additive, the same relationship will be between growth rates:

In practice, forecasting is carried out by using more complex balance equations and combining this method with other forecasting methods.

Analytical reporting forms

Conducting an analysis directly according to Russian financial statements is a rather laborious task, since too many calculated indicators do not allow us to identify the main trends in the financial condition of the organization. Even more inefficient is the forecasting of financial reporting forms in their typical nomenclature of articles. In this regard, it becomes necessary to consolidate the original reporting forms before conducting an analysis by aggregating balance sheet items that are homogeneous in composition to obtain a comparative analytical balance sheet (net balance sheet), as well as an analytical profit and loss statement.

In addition, Russian reporting does not meet the requirement for temporal comparability of data, since the structure of reporting forms has changed several times. This reporting requirement is extremely important, since all the analytical indicators calculated from its data will be useless if it is not possible to compare them in dynamics. And, of course, in this case it will be impossible to predict the financial condition of the enterprise even in the short term. In the light of the foregoing, it becomes clear that analysis and forecasting based on Russian financial statements become possible only after the data for different years have been reduced to some unified analytical mind. At the same time, the transformation of the original forms of financial statements into analytical forms of a single type can be considered as a necessary first step in the preliminary stage preceding the analysis and forecasting of the financial condition of the enterprise.

The structure of analytical reporting forms, the degree of aggregation of articles and the list of procedures for its formation are determined by the analyst and depend on the goals of the analysis. It should be borne in mind that the level of data aggregation determines the degree of reporting analytics. Moreover, the relationship here is inversely proportional: the higher the level of aggregation, the less suitable for analysis are the reporting forms.

The structure of the analytical reporting forms used in the combined forecasting method described below is given in Appendix 1. When transformed into a comparative analytical balance, the original balance was condensed, i.e. presented in the form of an aggregated comparative analytical balance, in which the information of individual homogeneous items of the balance sheet is combined into groups. The basis for grouping the assets of the balance sheet was the degree of their liquidity and material-material form, for the liability - attribution to own and borrowed sources of property formation, and within the framework of the latter - the urgency of return.

The first line of the asset of the analytical balance sheet is the line "Outside current assets", obtained as a result of the first section of the balance sheet. The second part - "Current assets" consists of the articles of the section "Current assets" of the balance sheet, grouped according to the degree of their liquidity into three groups: the most liquid assets, fast-selling assets and slow-moving assets. Slow-selling assets, in turn, are divided into inventories and other slow-moving assets.The liability of the analytical balance sheet consists, firstly, of equity, defined as the result of the fourth section of the balance sheet "Capital and reserves".In addition, loans and borrowings are presented in the passive part of the balance sheet, divided into short-term (maturity within 12 months) and long-term (repayable in more than 12 months). At the same time, other long-term liabilities were also reflected in the line "Long-term loans and borrowings". The last line of the analytical balance sheet "Accounts payable" contains the amount of accounts payable and other short-term ny liabilities from the original Form No. 1.

The analytical income statement used in the work consists of two lines - "Proceeds from sales" and "Net profit". These are the first and last lines from form No. 2 of the financial statements. Thus, the analytical report includes only the initial factor (revenue) and the effective indicator (net profit), in contrast to the accounting report, which also contains all intermediate factors that affect the determination of the result.

We emphasize once again that the type of analytical reporting used was not chosen by chance, but was determined by the need, on the one hand, to be able to fully calculate all the main indicators of the financial condition of the enterprise from its data, and on the other hand, to effectively use these forms in predictive calculations using the combined method.

When making calculations, analytical reporting forms were obtained from accounting forms using a personal computer. For these purposes, the Audit Expert software product from Pro-Invest-IT was used. The scenario approach implemented in this product made it possible to automatically bring data for different periods to a single analytical form described above. Also, with the help of Audit Expert, on the basis of the obtained analytical reporting forms, a system of indicators characterizing the financial condition of the enterprise was calculated, namely, indicators of liquidity and solvency, stability, profitability and business activity of the enterprise.

Combined method

The forecasting methods described in the previous paragraphs are not accidentally called basic methods. They are the basis of any financial forecasting models, but are rarely used in practice in pure form. In most cases, a certain combined method is used, combining the techniques and algorithms of several of the basic ones. This is due to the presence of shortcomings and limitations of each individual basic method, which are neutralized by their complex use. The basic methods as part of the combined complement each other. Often one of them is considered as a tool for additional control of the results obtained by other methods.

The combined method studied in this paper, according to the above classification, refers to methods that predict reporting forms (in the enlarged nomenclature of articles). Forecasting takes into account not only the individual dynamics of items, but also the relationship between individual items both within the same reporting form and between various forms. Figure 1 shows the connection of this method with the basic ones. As a result of forecasting, a balance sheet and a profit and loss statement are obtained in the upcoming period in an enlarged nomenclature of items described in the previous paragraph and given in Appendix 1.

VA - fixed assets; TA - current assets; SC - equity; KZ - the amount of accounts payable; TTA - the duration of the turnover of current assets; TKZ - the average maturity of accounts payable; B - proceeds from sales; P - profit remaining at the disposal of the organization; n - last reporting period; n+1 - forecast period.

Predictive reporting begins with the determination of the expected value of equity capital. Authorized, additional and reserve capital usually change rarely (unless the next share issue is planned in the forecast period), so they can be included in the forecast balance sheet in the same amount as in the last reporting balance sheet. Thus, the main element, due to which the amount of equity capital changes, is the profit remaining at the disposal of the organization. The amount of profit can be calculated using the method of proportional dependencies, based on the value of the profitability ratio of RP sales in the future period, which is equal to the ratio of profit to sales revenue:

RP = P / V (9)

The forecast value of this indicator, as well as sales proceeds, are determined by the autoregression method based on their individual dynamics in previous periods. It should be noted here that a much more reliable forecast of the amount of sales proceeds can be obtained by expert estimates of the company's specialists, based on past sales volumes, market conditions, production facilities, pricing policy etc. However, such assessments are usually not available to an external analyst who has at his disposal only the public reporting of the enterprise. So, the value of equity in the future period is determined as its value in the last reporting period, increased by the value of the projected profit (deterministic factorial method):

PSOK \u003d SK - VA (11)

Equation (11) is a special case of the balance equation, since it reflects the equality between equity, as a source of funds, and those types of assets, for the formation of which it is directed. Thus, in fact, the balance method of forecasting is used here. The amount of non-current assets in the forecast period is determined using the autoregression method.

The next step will be to determine the value of accounts payable in the forecast period KZn+1, which is related to the value of OSS. Indeed, accounts payable are suppliers' credit to the enterprise and, therefore, should be considered as a source of financing. Due to the gap in the maturities of accounts payable and turnover of working capital, there is a need for additional financing, i.e. OSS. Let us determine the type of dependence between the values ​​of short circuit and PSOC.

If borrowed funds in the form of accounts payable are provided for a period shorter than the duration of the production and commercial cycle, then payments on obligations can be made only on condition that the enterprise has sufficient own working capital. The amount of need for this source of financing is determined by the time between the end of the supplier credit and the end of the production and commercial cycle (current asset turnover period) (TTA - TKZ), as well as the amount of upcoming payments per unit of time P/D:

PSOK \u003d (TTA - TKZ) * P / D (12)

On the other hand, for the accounts payable turnover, by definition we have:

ObKZ = P / KZ (13),

where P is the amount of payments to creditors.

Then the average maturity of the debt will be equal to:

TKZ \u003d D / obKZ \u003d KZ * D / P (14),

Excluding the value P / D from formulas (12) and (14), we have:

PSOK \u003d KZn + 1 * (TTA - TKZ) / TKZ (15)

Thus, the need for own working capital is determined by the amount of accounts payable, the duration of the turnover of capital invested in current assets, and the maturity of accounts payable. The value of PSIC decreases with a decrease in the period of turnover of current assets. In case the TTA< ТКЗ, выражение в скобках формулы дает отрицательный результат, что означает отсутствие потребности в собственном капитале для формирования оборотных средств. В данном случае все текущие пассивы представлены только задолженностью кредиторам.

From formula (15) for the amount of accounts payable, we obtain:

KZn+1 = PSOK * TKZ / (TTA - TKZ) (16)

The value calculated according to this formula will be the maximum possible value of accounts payable, calculated on the assumption that the entire need of the enterprise for financing is satisfied at the expense of equity. Thus, the amount of accounts payable is predicted by a deterministic factorial method using functional dependence (16). The value of PSOC included in formula (16) was determined by us earlier. The duration of the turnover of current assets in the forecast period TTA is determined by the autoregression method, which makes it possible to identify the main trend in this indicator at the enterprise. To determine the maturity of TKZ's accounts payable, let's assume that the nature of settlements with suppliers will not change in the coming period. Then we can put the value of TKZ in the forecast period equal to its value in the last reporting period:

TKZ(n+1) = TKZ(n) (17)

Before determining the final value of accounts payable for inclusion in the forecast balance, it is necessary to calculate the value of the value of current assets TA (n + 1). To do this, we will use the value of the duration of the turnover of current TTA assets already calculated above. For the turnover of current assets, by definition, we have:

ObTA = B /<ТА> (18),

where<ТА>denotes the average value of current assets for the reporting period.

Then the duration of the turnover of current assets will be equal to:

TTA = D / ObTA =<ТА>*D / V (19),

where D is the duration of the reporting period.

On the other hand:

<ТА>= (TA(n) + TA(n+1))/2 (20)

From (19) and (20) we have:

TA (n + 1) \u003d 2 * V * TTA / D - TA (n) (21)

Substituting the quantities already known to us into right side formula (21), we will determine the forecast value of current assets ТА(n+1) (deterministic method).

So, for the final construction of predictive reporting forms in the enlarged nomenclature of articles, it remains for us to determine the amounts of accounts payable and loans in the liabilities side of the balance sheet. This is done according to the following scheme. We define the value of the balance sheet as the sum of the values ​​of current and non-current assets. Then we consider the maximum amount of accounts payable КЗn+1 determined by us earlier by formula (16). Depending on its value, forecasting ends with one of two options:

If the amount of KZn + 1 and the amount of equity capital exceeds the balance sheet value, then the amount of accounts payable decreases and is taken equal to the difference between the balance sheet currency and the amount of equity capital. In this case, the company has enough own sources of financing, so we put zero in the line "Credits and loans". Here we again use the basic balance method of linking indicators, which is integral part described combined method.

If own sources are not enough to meet the need for financing (the amount of KZn + 1 and the amount of equity is less than the balance sheet), then repayment of obligations to creditors is possible only if additional financial resources are attracted - bank loans. This will affect the duration of the production and commercial cycle. The turnover of funds will slow down due to an increase in the cost, which will now include bank interest for using a loan. This will lead to an increase in the gap between the period of turnover of current assets and the period of repayment of accounts payable. Consequently, the total need for PF financing, represented by equity capital and bank loans, will increase. In work (8) it is shown that the value of the PF can be determined by the formula:

PF \u003d TA * (TTA - TKZ) / TA (22)

The value of the line "Credits and loans" is determined as the difference between the total need for financing the PF and the value of own working capital already calculated by us using formula (11) in the forecast period of OSS. The line "Accounts payable and other liabilities" reflects the amount that brings the total liabilities of the balance sheet to the value of the balance sheet currency determined by active items (balance method).

The combined method studied in this paper is one of many fundamentally possible for the construction of predictive reporting forms. It is obvious that the conclusions compared with each other various methods financial forecasting should be done on the basis of a comparison of the accuracy of the forecasts obtained. Theoretical issues related to the definition of accuracy predictive models, are discussed in the next section.

Forecast Accuracy

The main criteria for evaluating the effectiveness of the model used in forecasting are the accuracy of the forecast and the completeness of the presentation of the future financial condition of the enterprise. From the point of view of completeness, certainly the best are the methods that allow you to build predictive forms of reporting. In this case, the future state of the enterprise can be analyzed in no less detail than its present position. The issue of forecast accuracy is somewhat more complex and requires closer attention. Forecast accuracy or error is the difference between the predicted and actual values. In each specific model, this value depends on a number of factors.

An extremely important role is played by historical data used in the development of a forecasting model. Ideally, it is desirable to have a large amount of data over a significant period of time. In addition, the data used should be "typical" in terms of the situation. Stochastic methods of forecasting, using the apparatus of mathematical statistics, impose very specific requirements on historical data, in case of non-fulfillment of which the accuracy of forecasting cannot be guaranteed. The data must be reliable, comparable, sufficiently representative for the manifestation of patterns, homogeneous and stable.

The accuracy of the forecast clearly depends on the correct choice of the forecasting method in a particular case. However, this does not mean that only one model is applicable in every case. It is possible that in some cases several various models give relatively reliable estimates. The main element in any forecasting model is the trend or line of the main trend of the series. Most models assume that the trend is linear, but this assumption is not always reasonable and may adversely affect the accuracy of the forecast. The accuracy of the forecast is also affected by the method used to separate seasonal fluctuations from the trend - addition or multiplication. When using regression methods, it is extremely important to correctly identify the cause-and-effect relationships between various factors and put these relationships into the model.

It is important to remember that the errors in the forecast of reporting lines and the errors in determining the effective indicators (financial ratios) in most cases do not coincide. Indeed, let any coefficient F be defined as follows:

F = (x + y) / z (23),

where x, y, z are some lines of the accounting or analytical balance sheet.

This is a fairly typical view for financial indicators. And let the absolute string prediction errors be dx, dy, dz, respectively. Then the absolute forecast error F will be equal to:

For the relative error, based on formulas (23) and (24), we obtain:

That is, if, for example, the accuracy of the prediction of each of the rows x, y and z was 10%, then by setting x=y, from formula (25) we obtain the accuracy of determining F:

Thus, the accuracy of the forecast of financial ratios in methods based on the construction of forecast reporting is always lower than the accuracy with which the forecast values ​​of the reporting lines themselves are determined. Therefore, if the analyst, as it should be, has certain requirements to the accuracy of determining financial ratios, then a method should be chosen that provides even higher accuracy of the forecast of reporting lines.

Before a model can be used to make realistic predictions, it must be tested for objectivity in order to ensure that the predictions are accurate. This can be achieved in two different ways:

1. The results obtained by the model are compared with the actual values ​​after a certain period of time, when they appear. The disadvantage of this approach is that testing the "impartiality" of the model can take a long time, since the model can only be truly tested over a long time period.
2. The model is built from a truncated set of available historical data. The rest of the data can be used for comparison with the predicted figures obtained using this model. This kind of verification is more realistic, since it actually models the predicted situation. The disadvantage of this method is that the most recent, and therefore the most significant indicators are excluded from the process of generating the original model.

In light of the above regarding model validation, it becomes clear that in order to reduce the expected errors, it is necessary to make changes to an already existing model. Such changes are made throughout the entire period of application of the model in real life. Continuous changes are possible in terms of trend, seasonal and cyclical fluctuations, as well as any causal relationship used. These changes are then verified using the methods already described. Thus, the model design process includes several stages: data collection, development of the initial model, verification, refinement - and again, all over again based on the continuous collection of additional data in order to ensure the reliability of the model as a source of predictive information about the financial position of the enterprise.

When developing any of the forecasting models, it is assumed that the situation in the future will not differ much from the present. In other words, it is considered that all significant factors are either taken into account in the forecasting model, or are unchanged during the entire period of time in which it is used. However, a model is always a coarsening of the real situation by selecting from an infinite number of acting factors of a limited number of those that are considered the most important based on the specific goals of the analysis. The accuracy and efficiency of the constructed model will directly depend on the correctness of the validity of such a selection. When using the model for forecasting, one should be aware of the existence of factors, consciously or unconsciously not included in it, which nevertheless affect the state of the enterprise in the future.

Literature

1. About accounting. Federal Law of the Russian Federation of November 21, 1996 No. 129-FZ (as amended federal law July 23, 1998 No. 123-FZ).
2. On the annual financial statements of organizations. Order of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation dated November 12, 1996 No. 97.
3. Regulation on accounting "Accounting statements of the organization" (PBU 4/99). Order of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation dated July 6, 1999 No. 43n.
4. M.I.Bakanov, A.D.Sheremet "Theory economic analysis". Moscow, "Finance and Statistics", 1998
5. VV Kovalev "Introduction to financial management". Moscow, "Finance and statistics", 1999
6. VV Kovalev "Financial analysis". Moscow, "Finance and statistics", 1999
7. A.I. Kovalev, V.P. Privalov "Analysis of the financial condition of the enterprise." Moscow, "Center for Economics and Marketing", 1997
8. L.V. Dontsova, N.A. Nikiforova "Comprehensive analysis of financial statements". Moscow, "Business and Service", 1999
9. O.V.Efimova "Financial analysis". Moscow, "Accounting", 1998
10. V.G. Artemenko, M.V. Bellendir "Financial analysis". Moscow, "DIS", 1997
11. R.Thomas "Quantitative Methods for the Analysis of Economic Activity". Moscow, "Business and Service", 1999
12. A.M.Dubrov, V.S.Mkhitaryan, L.I.Troshin "Multivariate statistical methods". Moscow, "Finance and Statistics", 1998 Appendix 1. Analytical reporting forms

Annex 1. Analytical reporting forms

Analytical balance

Fixed assets

Current assets, including:

The most liquid assets - A1

Marketable assets - A2

Slowly realizable assets - A3, including:

Stocks

Other slow-moving assets

LIABILITY

Equity

Credits and loans, including:

Short-term - P2

Long-term - P3

Accounts payable - P1

Analytical income statement

It is obvious that entrepreneurship is an activity related to the investment of funds and the generation of income. Funds are invested today, and income will be extracted tomorrow. To assess the possible amount of income and the effectiveness of investments, it is necessary to determine not only the sequence of actions and calculate their expected result, but also the future state of the enterprise and the external environment, including the conditions for marketing products, the behavior of competitors. possible structure of assets and sources of their financing, etc. And without these estimates, the calculations of the effectiveness of investment funds will hardly meet the minimum requirements for reliability. Determining the future state of the enterprise and its environment based on current trends is forecasting. Whether we realize it or not. but when making any planned or unscheduled decisions. evaluation of them possible consequences is a mandatory management action. And it is better that this action be carried out systematically and correctly as much as the available information allows. The assessment of the consequences of decisions and actions for the enterprise, taking into account the prevailing trends in the external environment and the state of the enterprise, or forecasting differs from the planning of these actions and decisions only in that when planning we are guided primarily by the goal to be realized, that is, based on the goal, we plan the sequence actions and the resources required for their implementation. When forecasting, the result or the possible degree of achievement of goals is the probable consequences of the decisions taken or planned. In this sense, forecasting is a necessary component of planning and management. And the success of planning and. therefore, the management of the enterprise's activities will be completely determined by the quality of predictive assessments of the consequences of decisions made.

The main goals of forecasting

Forecasting the results of the enterprise and its financial condition is carried out in order to:

• assessment of economic and financial prospects and the estimated financial condition of the enterprise for the planned period, depending on the main possible options for its production and marketing activities and its financing,
• formation on this basis of reasonable conclusions and recommendations regarding the choice of a rational strategy and tactics of actions of the top management of the enterprise.

Among the strategic and tactical decisions may be the production and sales program of the enterprise for the planned period, the planned structure of assets, including current assets, circuit diagram financing the assets and activities of the enterprise for the planned period, the ability to implement an investment project, etc. That is, any decision on the use of financial resources and the consequences of the implementation of this decision for the financial condition of the enterprise can be subjected to a predictive assessment.

Taking into account the extremely unstable financial condition of a significant part of Russian enterprises. one of the tasks of financial forecasting may be to assess the possibility. the main conditions and terms of the normalization of the state of the enterprise. that is, the possibilities and conditions for its financial recovery. In this sense, financial forecasting is a necessary element of anti-crisis management.

Financial positioning in the enterprise management system

Forecasting, as noted above. is a necessary component of management and one of the main conditions (according to R. Braley and S. Myers - Principles of corporate finance) for effective planning, and this determines its importance in the enterprise management system. Any decision must be preceded by an analysis of the current situation and a forecast of the possible consequences of its adoption or non-acceptance.

In order to make the analysis and forecasting procedures concrete, to eliminate abstract assumptions like “If only…” and to bring the decision-making process within the boundaries of the accepted strategic priorities, it seems appropriate to determine the normal parameters of the enterprise’s activity, that is, the main indicators of its work, within each planned (forecast) period considered to be the norm. In this case, the processes of analysis and forecasting will have the main content of comparing the actual (projected) values ​​of the parameters of the enterprise with normal ones, and the planning process will be the development of measures to bring the real state of the enterprise to normal.

Forecasting methods

The financial condition of an enterprise can be quite correctly described using three classic models: balance of income and expenses, balance of assets and liabilities and balance of receipts and payments. The same models allow you to evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of the enterprise. Therefore, the methodological basis for forecasting the financial condition and performance of enterprises should be these three balance sheets. The balance of income and expenses, which describes the results of the enterprise's activities for the period, the balance of assets and liabilities, which creates the financial image of the enterprise and characterizes the structure of its assets and liabilities, and the balance of receipts and payments, which represents the movement of means of payment between the enterprise and its counterparties and gives a complete picture of the dynamics collection of receivables and financing of all operations of the enterprise for the period, together form the financial model of the enterprise. Therefore, forecasting the financial condition of the enterprise and the results of its activities is the process of creating options for the financial model of the enterprise. taking into account any possible decisions on the formation of a production and marketing program, on the implementation of investment projects, on the acquisition of materials and raw materials, on determining the timing of the provision of commercial loans to consumers, on the formation of a wage fund, on the purchase of three brooms, etc. etc.

The process of forming a financial model of an enterprise (and predicting its state) has the following sequence. The first is the balance of income and expenses. The predicted (planned) results of the enterprise's activities for the period and the initial state of assets and liabilities are the basis for designing the balance sheet of assets and liabilities. The content of the two previous balances allows you to calculate (precisely calculate!) the flow of receipts and payments for the period.

Since the formation of three balances is an absolutely formalized procedure, the rules of which are determined by the norms accounting, and relationships between balance sheets are just as formalized, the process of financial forecasting can be easily computerized. This allows you to quickly, in real time, make estimates of the consequences of any possible financial decisions.

The order of the procedure for forecasting the financial condition and results of the enterprise includes, firstly. preparation of initial information on the state of the enterprise and preparation of planned decisions, divided into six blocks. The first block is the initial state of the assets and liabilities of the enterprise, financial reporting data. The second block is the planned (projected) sales volume and conditions for the sale of products. This is information from the sales service (marketing). Block three - planned investments and disinvestments in non-current assets. This information is prepared by the financial department on the basis of preliminary (design) planning decisions for the technical development of the enterprise. Block four - forecasted stocks at the end of the period finished products and materials, balances of work in progress, the amount of receivables and other elements of current assets. Forecast estimates should be made by the financial department after consultation with the relevant departments of the enterprise. The fifth block - decisions on changing the authorized capital and paying dividends. Block six - design solutions for financing the activities of the enterprise for the forecast period, including obtaining and repaying long-term and short-term loans, changes in the amount of commercial accounts payable, balances of wage arrears and payments to the budget and extra-budgetary funds. In addition, for modeling, it is necessary to use a computerized block for calculating taxes or enter information on the amount of payments calculated by other methods to be paid to the budget and extra-budgetary funds during the forecast period. The second step is to structure the source information in a certain way, that is, to enter it into the appropriate formats (tables). Further, on the basis of this structured information, a financial model of the enterprise and forecast balances of income and expenses, assets and liabilities, receipts and payments are created. The resulting balances are the basis for making a decision.

Forecasting period, forecast options

The forecasting period can be fundamentally any: from a month to fifty years. His choice is determined. First, the goals of forecasting. that is, the nature of the decisions. to be taken using predictive estimates, and secondly, the reliability of the initial information. Obviously, it is pointless to make forecast calculations when the error of some data, for example, sales volume. exceeds 15 - 20%. Such a forecast makes little sense, since decisions, the consequences of which have a probability of implementation of + 20%, can be made without laborious forecasting calculations. In the current conditions of Russia, forecasting calculations can give a completely correct result when choosing a forecasting period from several days to 2–2.5 years. This choice is due to what. on the one hand, to assess the immediate prospects, a short-term forecast is needed; on the other hand, to rationalize the choice and evaluate the strategy and tactics of action, the top management of the enterprise should evaluate its prospects for at least 2 years. since during this period investments in more or less effective investment projects pay off.

To assess the impact on the financial condition and performance of the enterprise of probable changes in the main factors (sales, costs, etc.), it is advisable to make forecast calculations for several options with different initial data (production program, production cost structure, investments, etc.). In practice, it is customary most often to assess the future in three ways: pessimistic. optimistic and realistic. It allows managers! the enterprise to be ready both for unexpected troubles. and fortunately by chance.

On the procedure for the formation of initial data for forecasting, the main assumptions that are appropriate in carrying out forecast calculations. we plan to describe the technique of carrying out calculations and methods of interpreting the results in the next articles of this cycle.

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• • Introduction
• Conclusion
• Bibliography
• Introduction
• The relevance of the topic - at present, it should be noted the continuously growing need for forecasts. The practical value of the predictive function has become more acutely recognized everywhere. scientific theories in order to make informed decisions, both at the state level and at the level of an individual business entity. A special place in the theory of scientific forecasting is occupied by financial forecasting, since finance is an important tool for regulating the economy and contributes to its more sustainable development. And at the micro level, financial forecasting can significantly improve enterprise management by ensuring the coordination of all factors of production and sales, the interconnection of the activities of all departments, and the distribution of responsibility.
• Thus, the most objective and accurate financial forecasting is the key to the success of the implementation and implementation of the adopted methods and management decisions. Moreover, the methods used in financial forecasting can be equally organically used in the development of forecasts and plans, both at the macro and micro levels.
• It should also be noted that the relevance of improving the quality of predictive studies is increasing. It takes more in-depth study and development of the main problems arising in financial forecasting. To a certain extent, the study and use of world experience will contribute to the solution of these problems.
• The purpose of the course work is the study of financial forecasting in the system of the economy of the Russian Federation and the city of Moscow. The goal is determined by the need to solve the following tasks:
• characteristics of financial forecasting, its goals, methods, tasks;
• identification of problems of financial forecasting in the system of the economy of the Russian Federation and the city of Moscow;
• development of recommendations and measures to solve the problem under study.
• The total volume and structure of the course work is represented by an introduction, conclusion, three chapters and a list of references.
• The introduction defines the relevance of the topic, goals and objectives.
• The first chapter characterizes the socio-economic essence of financial forecasting - a description of the origin, goals, functions.
• The second chapter describes the principles and methods of financial forecasting, as well as the areas of its application: at the level of the state and the economic entity.
• The third chapter analyzes financial forecasting in the economic system of the Russian Federation and the city of Moscow.
• financial forecasting budget
• Chapter 1. Socio-economic essence of financial forecasting
• History shows that forecasting arose many centuries ago. The feudal lords also predicted the development of their economy. But the capitalist brought to perfection the planning and management of production on the basis of a plan within the company. The plan as a system of economic measures in the economy (large or small) arose with the advent of the division and cooperation of labor and serves as a program of management in a certain time period. With the deepening of the division of social labor, it becomes necessary to establish and maintain proportions. Plannedness as a social category arises with the formation of public-state, municipal property.
• At the beginning of the twentieth century. the first attempts were made to identify economic indicators. In particular, J. Bruckmeier already in 1911 tried to use three chronological series of the following indicators for forecasting: bank credit index, share price index, index of general economic activity. This approach was further developed in the 1920s in studies at Harvard University, where the so-called "Harvard ABC curves" were used. Curve A was the cost index valuable papers on the stock exchange, curve B - the amount of deposits in banks, curve C - the rate of interest. The choice of these indicators as indicators was based on the notion that in the vicinity of the turning points of the cycle, these indicators, first of all, should have fixed the change in the economic situation in the specified sequence.
• A powerful impetus to the development of forecasting and planning abroad was the crisis of 1929-1933, which made it necessary to look for ways out of it.
• In the 1930s, for the first time abroad, planning appeared at the macro level. Forecasts and plans are becoming a necessary element of economic regulation systems. Forecasts were made using the input-output model, linear programming, models system analysis and based on expert assessments.
• The first plans at the macro level covered fiscal and monetary policy and were expressed in the preparation of national budgets. They differed from state budgets in that they took into account the revenues not only of the state, but also of the country as a whole.
• In the post-war years, planning at the macro level becomes the subject of extensive discussions in order not only to avoid crises, but also to regulate the distribution of goods. The nationalization of a number of industries, the growth of the share of the public sector in the economy made it possible for governments to exercise direct control over foreign trade, prices, and finances.
• In the 1950s, many countries moved away from the preparation of national plans in the form of budgets. Two new directions have emerged. The first is connected with the complication of the administrative apparatus used to develop plans, the second - with the expansion of the sphere of planning. If at the first stage national economic plans were drawn up in the Ministry of Finance, then at the beginning of the 60s special planning bodies were created: in France - the General Commissariat for Planning; in Japan - Economic Advisory Council, Economic Planning Department; in the Netherlands, the Central Planning Office; in Canada - the Economic Council.
• Until the 1970s, forecasting was carried out using national forecasting models. In the mid-70s, macroeconomic models began to be created, with the help of which the development of the economy of a number of countries, regions and the whole world is predicted. They were first developed in the USA. Thus, the LINK model includes 10 national models (9 European countries and Japan). When developing the future of the world economy, the UN used the macroeconomic model of V. Leontiev, which consisted of 15 interrelated regional models.
• Each country, taking into account the specifics of the national economy, uses certain approaches to forecasting and planning economic and social processes, constantly improving them in relation to changing conditions.
• Financial forecasting - is an activity for the foresight and strategic assessment of the prospects for the development of finance, the volume, composition and structure of financial resources and directions for their use. The main distinguishing features of financial forecasting is the focus on the medium and long term, the estimated and recommendatory nature of the predicted financial parameters.
• The purpose of financial forecasting is the development of economically justified estimated parameters for the development of finance, the provision of financial resources and financing of forecasts for the socio-economic development of the country, its territories and economic entities in the medium and long term, as well as the rationale for indicators of financial plans. Financial forecasts are a necessary element and at the same time a stage in the development of financial policy. They allow developing various scenarios for solving socio-economic problems facing all subjects of the financial system.
• The forecast outlines areas and opportunities within which real tasks and goals can be set, identifies problems that should become the object of development in the plan. It considers options for active influence on the objective factors of the future development of finance. A financial forecast is such a study of prospective development that is not limited to a specific economic and political decision, and therefore has a preliminary, variant character, its horizons are not limited to the planning period.
• The main tasks of financial forecasting are:

Ensuring a long-term relationship between monetary and material and property proportions;

Forecasting the sources, volume and structure of financial resources that authorities and business entities will be able to dispose of;

Substantiation of priorities, directions and ways of using financial resources by authorities and management of organizations;

Determination of the result and assessment of the financial consequences of the decisions made within the parameters of the financial forecast.

In the process of financial forecasting, financial forecasts are made, which can also be called long-term financial plans. Forecasts can be medium-term for a period of 3 to 5 years, and long-term - for a longer forecast period. The financial forecasts of public authorities in Russia are the consolidated financial balance of the Russian Federation and the medium-term financial plans of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation ( municipalities).

At the federal level, a consolidated financial balance of the Russian Federation is compiled for the country as a whole and for sectors. Its section on income reflects the forecast values ​​of profit, depreciation, tax revenues, UST, non-tax revenues and receipts, gratuitous transfers, and funds from state extra-budgetary funds. The expenditure section provides a forecast estimate of the following consolidated items: funds remaining at the disposal of organizations; the cost of public investment, fundamental research and promotion of scientific and technical progress; expenses for social and cultural events; spending on national defense and military reforms, spending on law enforcement, ensuring national security of the judiciary; expenses for the maintenance of public authorities and local government; expenses for activities, for servicing the state and municipal debt; financial assistance (transfers) to the budgets of other levels; budgetary funds, other expenses. The difference between revenues and expenditures gives the projected value of the deficit and surplus.

Chapter 2. Methods and stages of financial forecasting

In world practice, more than two hundred forecasting methods are used, while in domestic science - no more than twenty. The introduction indicated that the methods of financial forecasting, which are widely used in developed foreign countries, will be considered.

Financial forecasting planning involves the use of the following special methods:

1) Methods of expert assessments, which provide for a multi-stage survey of experts according to special schemes and processing of the results obtained using tools of economic statistics. These are the simplest and most popular methods, the history of which goes back more than one millennium. The application of these methods in practice, usually, is to use the experience and knowledge of trade, financial, production managers of an enterprise or government agency. As a rule, this ensures that the decision is made in the simplest and fastest way. The disadvantage is the reduction or complete absence of personal responsibility for the forecast made. Expert assessments are used not only to predict the values ​​of indicators, but also in analytical work, for example, to develop weight coefficients, threshold values ​​for controlled indicators, etc.

2) Stochastic methods, which assume the probabilistic nature of both the forecast and the very relationship between the studied indicators. The probability of obtaining an accurate forecast increases with the increase in the number of empirical data. These methods occupy a leading place in terms of formalized forecasting and vary significantly in the complexity of the algorithms used. The simplest example is the study of sales trends by analyzing the growth rates of sales indicators. Forecasting results obtained by statistical methods are subject to random fluctuations in data, which can sometimes lead to serious miscalculations.

Stochastic methods can be divided into three typical groups, which will be named below. The choice for forecasting the method of one group or another depends on many factors, including the available initial data.

First situation- the presence of a time series - occurs most often in practice: a financial manager or analyst has at his disposal data on the dynamics of the indicator, on the basis of which it is required to build an acceptable forecast. In other words, we are talking about highlighting a trend. This can be done in various ways, the main of which are simple dynamic analysis and analysis using autoregressive dependencies.

Second situation- the presence of a spatial aggregate - takes place if for some reason there are no statistical data on the indicator or there is reason to believe that its value is determined by the influence of some factors. In this case, multivariate regression analysis can be used, which is an extension of a simple dynamic analysis to a multivariate case.

Third situation- the presence of a spatio-temporal set - takes place when: a) the series of dynamics are insufficient in length to build statistically significant forecasts; b) the analyst intends to take into account in the forecast the influence of factors that differ in economic nature and their dynamics. The initial data are matrices of indicators, each of which represents the values ​​of the same indicators for different periods or for different consecutive dates.

3) Deterministic methods that assume the presence of functional or rigidly determined relationships, when each value of the factor attribute corresponds to a well-defined non-random value of the resultant attribute. As an example, we can cite the dependencies implemented in the framework of the well-known DuPont factor analysis model. Using this model and substituting into it the forecast values ​​of various factors, such as sales proceeds, asset turnover, the degree of financial dependence, and others, it is possible to calculate the forecast value of one of the main performance indicators - the return on equity ratio.

Another very illustrative example is the income statement form, which is a tabular implementation of a rigidly determined factor model that connects the effective attribute (profit) with factors (sales income, cost level, tax rate level, etc.). And at the level of state financial forecasting, the factor model is the relationship between the volume of state revenues and the tax base or interest rates.

Here it is impossible not to mention another group of methods for financial forecasting at the micro level, based on the construction of dynamic simulation models of the enterprise. Such models include data on planned purchases of materials and components, production and sales volumes, cost structure, investment activity of the enterprise, tax environment, etc. The processing of this information within the framework of a single financial model makes it possible to assess the forecast financial condition of the company with a very high degree of accuracy. In reality, such models can only be built using personal computers, which make it possible to quickly perform a huge amount of necessary calculations.

Financial forecasting is a three-stage process, including the analysis of the implementation of the financial forecast, the definition of forecast indicators, the formation of a financial forecast.

At the stage of fulfilling the financial forecast, the degree of fulfillment of the planned parameters for the past period compared to the actual results is determined, reserves for income growth and attraction of other financial resources are identified, directions and ways to increase the efficiency of their use are determined, and the expected fulfillment of the forecast is monitored. In this case, the following analytical methods are used: horizontal-vertical analysis, trend analysis, factor analysis. The stage of determining planned indicators is associated with the calculation of specific values ​​of these indicators that characterize the processes of formation and use of financial resources (income).

At the stage of forming a financial forecast, it is directly compiled in terms of income, expenses and other indicators, after which it is approved by authorized persons. 2 It is at this stage that the optimization of indicators and the financial forecast as a whole is carried out as a document subject to execution and monitoring.

When making forecasts, the balance method is most often used, based on linking financial resources with the financial needs of government bodies and business entities.

Chapter 3. Financial forecasting in the economic system of the Russian Federation and the city of Moscow

3.1 Forecast of the main parameters of the budget system of the Russian Federation and the main characteristics of the federal budget for 2015, 2016 and 2017

Dynamics of the main parameters of the budget system of the Russian Federation for 2015 and the planning period of 2016 and 2017 characterized by some stabilization after a significant decline in 2009 revenues at the level of 35.4 - 34.6% of GDP, a decrease in total expenditure from 38.6% to 37.1% of GDP and a deficit from 3.1% to 2.5 % of GDP (Table 1):

Table 1. Main parameters of the budget system of the Russian Federation billion rubles

Indicators
Income, total
including:
Federal budget
Budgets of state off-budget funds, total
The budget of the Pension Fund of the Russian Federation
including income excluding intergovernmental transfers
including income excluding intergovernmental transfers
Budgets of compulsory health insurance funds
including income excluding intergovernmental transfers
Expenses, total
including:
Federal budget
Consolidated budgets of the subjects of the Russian Federation
including expenses excluding interbudgetary transfers
Budgets of state non-budgetary funds (with territorial and MHIF), total
The budget of the Pension Fund of the Russian Federation
Foundation budget social insurance
Budgets of compulsory health insurance funds (excluding interbudgetary transfers)
including
Federal Compulsory Medical Insurance Fund (excluding interbudgetary transfers to the Social Insurance Fund and Territorial Compulsory Medical Insurance Funds)
Territorial funds of obligatory medical insurance
Deficit (-) / Surplus (+), total

The share of the federal budget in the revenues of the budget system (before the provision of interbudgetary transfers) will increase from 46.6% in 2013 to 48.8% in 2017, in expenditures it will remain stable at 68.4%.

An increase in the share of budget revenues of state off-budget funds of the Russian Federation in the total revenues of the budgetary system of the Russian Federation is forecasted to increase from 33.2% in 2013 to 33.5% in 2017. The share of expenditures of state non-budgetary funds of the Russian Federation in the total expenditures of the budget system will decrease from 31.6% in 2013 to 31.2% in 2017.

The share of revenues of the consolidated budgets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and territorial compulsory health insurance funds in the total revenues of the budgetary system of the Russian Federation (before the provision of interbudgetary transfers) will increase from 30.2% in 2013 to 31.1% in 2017, the share of expenses - from 37 .4% in 2013 to 38.8% in 2017.

The main characteristics of the federal budget for 2015 and for the planning period of 2016 and 2017 are formed on the basis of the forecast of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for 2015-2017 and correspond to the main provisions of the Budget Message, including the need for a consistent reduction in the size of the federal budget deficit (table 2):

Table 2. Main characteristics of the federal budget for 2010-2014 billion rubles

Indicator	2013 (report)	2014 Law 201-FZ			2017 (project)
			Law 349-FZ		Law 349-FZ
Income, total
Expenses, total
Deficit (-) / Surplus (+)

In 2014-2017, federal budget revenues are projected to decline from 19.9% ​​of GDP in 2014 to 19.6% in 2015 and to 18.1% of GDP by 2017, mainly due to a decrease in oil and gas revenues. Oil and gas revenues are declining from 9.9% of GDP in 2015 to 8.4% of GDP in 2017, while non-oil and gas revenues remain at the level of 9.7% of GDP (Table 3):

Table 3. Dynamics of federal budget revenues billion rubles

Indicator	2014 Law 201-FZ			2017 (project)
		Law 349-FZ		Law 349-FZ
Income, total
including:
Oil and gas revenues
Non-oil and gas revenues
Share in total income, %
including:
Oil and gas revenues
Non-oil and gas revenues
Income growth rate in nominal terms compared to the previous year, %

The decrease in the projected receipt of oil and gas revenues as a percentage of GDP in 2015-2017 is due to a decrease in export prices for natural gas, oil production, exports of goods produced from oil, as well as a lower growth rate of the US dollar compared to GDP growth rates against to the ruble, the volume of exports of oil and natural gas, the volume of production of combustible natural gas.

The volume of non-oil and gas revenues was formed taking into account the implementation of the plan to mobilize budget revenues of the budget system of the Russian Federation, which includes measures to reduce the shadow sector of the economy, the implementation of a number of additional measures to increase federal budget revenues, and improve tax and customs administration.

In 2013 - 2016, an increase in federal budget expenditures is planned (Table 4). In 2015 - 2017, the replenishment of the Reserve Fund will continue (Table 5).

Table 4. Dynamics of federal budget expenditures

Table 5. Forecast of the volume of the reserve fund billion rubles

Indicator
	Law 349-FZ	Law 349-FZ	Draft Budget Strategy
Volume of the Reserve Fund at the beginning of the year
Exchange difference
Replenishment
Volume of the Reserve Fund at the end of the year

In general, the volume of the Reserve Fund is forecast to grow in 2015-2017, which is due to the growth of the forecast volume of additional oil and gas revenues. At the same time, there are risks of shortfalls in non-oil and gas revenues, as well as in attracting borrowed (external and internal) sources of financing the federal budget deficit and funds from the privatization of state property. As a result, the volume of the Reserve Fund may be reduced to the level of the beginning of 2013.

3.2 Financial forecasting of the budget of the city of Moscow for 2015 and the planning period of 2016 and 2017

The main directions of the budget and tax policy for 2015 and the planning period of 2016 and 2017 are focused on providing conditions for further socio-economic development of the city of Moscow in accordance with the strategic goals and objectives defined by the state programs of the city of Moscow.

The main objectives of the budget policy for 2015 and the medium term, as in previous years, are:

- ensuring the stability and sustainability of the budgetary system of the city of Moscow, including taking into account the increase in the efficiency of the use of financial resources;

- unconditional fulfillment of existing expenditure obligations;

- maintaining the share of budget allocations aimed at the implementation of priority projects for the development of infrastructure in the city of Moscow in the total amount of expenditures;

- improvement of interbudgetary relations with local governments of intracity municipalities in the city of Moscow;

- Ensuring transparency and openness of the budget process.

The main parameters of the budget of the city of Moscow for 2015 and the planning period of 2016 and 2017.

The dynamics of the main parameters of the budget of the city of Moscow for 2015 and the planning period of 2016 and 2017 is presented in table 6.

Table 6. The main parameters of the budget of the city of Moscow for 2015 and the planning period of 2016 and 2017 (billion rubles)

Indicator	Execution
Tax and non-tax revenues, total
Expenses, total
growth rate compared to the previous year, %
including:
conditionally approved expenses
in % of total expenses
deficit, total
The ratio of the deficit (excluding account balances and post-receipts from the sale of shares) to the volume of own income, % of proceeds from the sale of shares) to the volume of own income, %

The main parameters of the budget of the city of Moscow for 2015 and the planned period of 2016 and 2017 are characterized by an increase in revenues in 2015 by 2.0% compared to the budget revenues expected in 2014, in 2016 - by 3.4% compared to the forecasted volume of revenues in 2015 year, in 2017 - by 4.4% to the forecasted volume of income in 2016.

When forming the revenue part of the budget of the city of Moscow in 2015 and the planning period of 2016 and 2017, the following main factors were taken into account:

indicators of the forecast of socio-economic development of the city of Moscow;

provisions of the tax and budget legislation of the Russian Federation;

the actual dynamics of revenues to the budget, emerging in 2014.

The formation of indicators for the expenditure part of the budget for a three-year period is carried out according to state programs (the share of expenditures for which is about 92% of the total budget expenditures).

The total budget deficit of the city of Moscow for 2015 and the planned period of 2016 and 2017 will amount to 146.7 billion rubles in 2015, respectively, in 2016 - 127.8 billion rubles and in 2017 - 112.9 billion rubles .

The budget deficit for 2015 will be 9.9%, for 2016 - 8.3%, for 2017 - 7.0% to own revenues.

Revenues of the budget of the city of Moscow for 2015 and the planned period of 2016 and 2017

The forecast of revenues of the budget of the city of Moscow for 2015 and the planning period of 2016 and 2017 is presented in Table 7.

Table 7

The main share (90%) of budget revenues are tax revenues.

Taking into account the forecasted level of inflation, the growth rate of wages and investment activity, the results of the financial and economic activities of organizations in the city of Moscow for 9 months of 2014, as well as the emerging dynamics of current receipts, the average growth rate of tax revenues for 2015 is projected to be about 3.5% of the expected assessment of income in 2014.

The growth in tax revenues for the planned period of 2016 and 2017 will be about 3.7% and 4.7%, respectively.

The forecast estimate of tax and non-tax revenues for 2015 and the planning period of 2016 and 2017 is presented taking into account the indicators of the main administrators of budget revenues.

Conclusion

Based on the research conducted as part of the course work, we made the following theoretical generalizations and practical recommendations:

Financial forecasting - is an activity for the foresight and strategic assessment of the prospects for the development of finance, the volume, composition and structure of financial resources and directions for their use.

When considering the features of building financial forecasts, it is necessary to remember the close connection between financial planning and forecasting. Financial forecasting substantiates qualitatively and quantitatively the most probable scenarios for the development of the future, on the basis of which financial plans are developed for the most adequate response in the future.

When developing financial forecasts, the methods used play an important role. In world practice, the following classification of financial forecasting methods is used: methods of expert assessments, stochastic methods, deterministic methods. The most common method is the combined method, which takes into account all possible (relevant) factors, which means that the predicted scenario is highly accurate.

The dynamics of the main parameters of the budget system of the Russian Federation for 2015 and for the planned period of 2016 and 2017 is characterized by some stabilization after a significant decrease in 2013 revenues at the level of 18% of GDP, a decrease in total expenditures from 1.7% to 1.5% GDP and deficit from 0.7% to 0.6% of GDP.

Bibliography

1. Budget code with comments - M. - "Prospect", 2008. -326s.

2. Barulin S.V. "Finance" - M. - "KNORUS", 2010. -640s.

3. Belozerov S.A., Brodsky S.A., Gorbushina and others. "Finance" M. "Prospect" 2010.-928p.

4. Buryakovsky V.V. Finance of enterprises - textbook - M .: Finance and statistics, 2007. - 485 p.

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• Anikeeva Anna Alekseevna, bachelor, student
• Saint Petersburg State University of Economics

• PERCENT OF SALES METHOD
• FORECASTING
• FINANCIAL FORECASTING METHODS
• ECONOMIC AND MATHEMATICAL MODELS
• FINANCIAL PLAN
• METHOD OF EXPERT ASSESSMENTS
• EXTRAPOLATION
• REGRESSION MODEL
• FINANCIAL BUDGET
• BUDGETING

This article discusses the concept of financial forecasting, methods of forecasting financial activity, their role in the financial planning of an enterprise.

• Operational, financial, production cycles of the enterprise

Forecasting the financial activity of an enterprise is a hot topic that has not yet been fully studied. Forecasting is a time-consuming analysis and, as a result, a hypothesis about the future state of the object as a whole and its indicators.

Forecasting financial activity can significantly improve the management of the enterprise, ensuring coordination and reducing the uncertainty of all factors of production and marketing, establishing the relationship between the activities of departments, and the distribution of responsibility in the organization.

Every year, models for predicting financial activity are being improved, which make it possible for us to understand the dependence on the current or previous state of processes.

"A confident understanding of the trends and prospects for the development of an organization, and the conditions for changing the economic environment in which the activities of an economic entity are carried out, is a fundamental factor in the formation of a managerial initiative of the organization's management."

Financial forecasting is carried out before the development of a financial plan, it contributes to the formation of financial policy. However, it also carries with it a certain degree of uncertainty when we consider comparing it with financial planning.

The main methods of financial forecasting are: economic and mathematical, the method of extrapolation, the method of expert assessments. These methods are used in various fields, including financial activities. It is also worth noting that for planning financial activities, methods such as the budgeting method and the “percentage of sales” method are used. The methodologies listed above are the main ones and are most often used in the field of financial analytics and forecasting the company's financial activity.

Economic and mathematical modeling can be considered the most common method for making forecasts regarding financial indicators. This method allows you to quantify the relationship between the planned indicator and the factors that determine it.

The economic and mathematical model makes it possible to reflect functional dependence financial indicator from various factors influencing it.

It uses optimistic, pessimistic and realistic rates of change in economic indicators (revenue growth, cost reduction per unit of output, unchanged tax rates, constant share of payments to the budget). These indicators are necessary to develop positive, negative and realistic scenarios for the development of the company, for each of which a balance sheet forecast and a statement of financial results are created.

The greatest application in financial forecasting of the economic and mathematical model was reflected in the method of regression.

These models make it possible to determine the dependence of the average value of a financial indicator (random variable) on one or more factors (regression coefficients) that are used from statistical data.

This group of models includes the method of autoregressive dependencies. To base this method a fairly obvious condition is laid down, indicating that economic processes have a certain peculiarity. Their peculiarity is that they are interdependent and have a specific inertia. This inertia is reflected in the fact that the value of almost any economic indicator at a point in time depends in a certain way on the state of this indicator in previous periods (in the case presented, we do not take into account the impact of other factors), i.e. the values ​​of the predicted indicator in past periods should be considered as factor signs.

Y t \u003d a 0 +∑a i xY t-1

Where Yt is the predicted value of the indicator Y at time t; Yt-i - the value of the indicator Y at the time (t-i); ai - i-th regression coefficient.

This method has many varieties of formulas depending on the heterogeneity of indicators and their dependence on some variable.

It is important to note that the short period of the study does not make it possible to reflect general patterns. But also too big period may lead to certain inaccuracies in forecasting. The most optimal for today is given a period of 1-2 years.

extrapolation method. Its essence is to spread the trends that have developed in the past into the future.

This technique is applicable to less inertial (that is, stable) indicators of microeconomics. The calculation of economic indicators is carried out on the basis of adjusting the level of indicators achieved in the past period by a relatively stable rate of their growth. This method is not intended to calculate certain values ​​of elements in the future, its essence is to identify the patterns of indicators and predict their objectively emerging shifts.

To forecast a system of financial indicators, extrapolation is usually used in combination with other methods, for example, with the least squares method, with other modeling methods.

The methodology of expert assessments is also applicable, in which the processing of expert opinions on the dynamics of financial processes, which are developed through certain procedures (questionnaires, interviews), is mainly carried out. Experts should be highly qualified specialists professionally engaged in the study and management of the economy and finances of the organization.

This method is usually applicable to the study of the company's financial risks, strategically important and other financial indicators that require in-depth familiarization and generalization of experts.

It is also important to note the methods of financial forecasting, which are directly components of financial planning.

These include budgeting methods and "percentage of sales".

Budgeting is the process of building and executing a detailed plan for the company's activities for the coming period, which includes sales income, production and financial costs, cash flow, and the realization of the company's profits. The peculiarity of this method from the previous ones is that it gives a forecast for a short period. This method performs not only the function of planning and forecasting, but also analytical, as it allows you to identify deviations from what was expected in the budget, and adjust the actions of the organization.

The financial budget is a forecast of financial statements. It is compiled from the information that is compiled in the budget on profit and loss. One of the main stages of budgeting is cash flow forecasting. A cash flow budget is a plan of cash receipts and payments. When calculating the cash flow budget, it is important to determine the time of receipts and payments, and not the time of execution of business transactions.

The second method is the percentage of sales method. It allows you to simply and concisely draw up a forecast balance sheet at the end of the future period.

The method of forecasting the balance sheet using the percentage of sales method is as follows:

1. Variable expenses, current assets and short-term liabilities, subject to an increase in sales revenue by a certain percentage, grow on average by the same percentage. This means that both current assets and short-term liabilities will matter in the forecast period at the same percentage of sales revenue.
2. The percentage increase in the value of fixed assets is calculated for a given percentage increase in sales proceeds, taking into account the production technology, also in the presence of unused or underused fixed assets at the beginning of the forecasting period, the degree of their physical and obsolescence, etc.
3. The remaining non-current assets (ie, excluding property, plant and equipment) are included in the forecast unchanged.
4. Long-term liabilities are included in the forecast unchanged.
5. What is included in equity: authorized capital, treasury shares, additional capital, reserve capital, deferred income and reserves for future expenses are included in the forecast unchanged.
6. Retained earnings are projected taking into account the projected rate of return and the rate of distribution of net profit for dividends
7. The next step is to find out how many liabilities are not enough to cover the required assets with liabilities - this will be the required amount of additional external financing (WTF)

With the help of these two methodologies, the organization will eventually receive answers to such questions: is the enterprise currently using its available resources effectively, how much? What will be the consequences of this distribution of financial resources?

As a result of these methods, a forecast balance will be formed and proposals will be formulated to eliminate deterioration in the trend of the company's financial development.

Financial forecasting is the basis for financial planning of the enterprise. Forecasting financial activity is definitely important and useful for the functioning of enterprises, because it is the results of the forecast that contribute to a more correct direction of financial management and the adoption of strategically important management decisions.

Bibliography

1. Zhminko N.S., Safonov I.S. Forecasting the financial condition of agricultural organizations using a discriminant-rating express model // Scientific journal of KubGAU, No. 97 (03), 2014
2. Ilysheva N.I., Roof. SI Analysis of the financial statements of a commercial organization: Proc. manual for university students studying in the specialty "Accounting, analysis and audit". M.: UNITY-DANA. 2006.240 p.
3. Krylov S.I. Improving the methodology of analysis in the financial management system of a commercial organization: Monograph. Ekaterinburg: GOUVPOUPU-UPI, 2007. 357 p.
4. Kuzmenkova A.V. Application of the extrapolation method for forecasting the key performance indicators of the JSC ROSTELECOM company // International Student Scientific Bulletin. - 2015. - No. 4-2 .;

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND SCIENCE OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

NATIONAL ACADEMY OF ENVIRONMENTAL AND RESORT CONSTRUCTION

Faculty of Economics and Management

Department of Finance and Credit

REPORT

in the discipline "Financial management"

on the topic: "The system of financial forecasting in the Russian Federation at the enterprise level"

Completed by: 1st year student

groups SUF-141,

Checked by: Uskov I.V.

Simferopol - 2014

In a broad sense, financial forecasting consists in studying the possible financial situation of an enterprise in the future, developing the main directions of a financial strategy to ensure the necessary stability of an enterprise while financing certain expenses. Such a forecast is important, first of all, for the enterprise itself, since raising capital and preventing bankruptcy remain constant tasks in continuing operations. In a civilized market, competition encourages to increase sales, reduce costs<#"justify">-marketing plan;

-manufacturing program;

-technical development and organization of production;

-promotion economic efficiency production;

-norms and standards;

-capital investments and capital construction;

-logistics;

-labor and personnel;

-economic incentive funds;

-financial plan;

-conservation and management plan natural resources;

-social development of the team.

Figure 1 - System of forecasts and plans of the enterprise

We see that forecasts occupy a leading (initial) position in the entire system of forecasts and plans for enterprises in the Russian Federation. In essence, there is no sharp boundary between a forecast (foreseeing the future) and a plan. We can say that a forecast is an insufficiently defined plan, and a plan is an updated forecast. The most significant difference between a plan and a forecast is the presence in the plan of elements of choice, decision-making and measures to implement these decisions.

Taking into account the extremely unstable financial condition of a significant part of Russian enterprises, one of the tasks of financial forecasting may be to assess the possibility, basic conditions and terms for normalizing the state of the enterprise, that is, the possibilities and conditions for its financial recovery. In this sense, financial forecasting is a necessary element of anti-crisis management.

In theory and practice, medium-term financial forecasting (5-10 years) and long-term financial forecasting (more than 10 years) are distinguished.

Financial forecasting is carried out by developing various options development of an organization, a separate administrative-territorial unit, the country as a whole, their analysis and justification, evaluation possible extent achieving certain goals depending on the nature of the actions of planning subjects. This is achieved by two different methodological approaches:

-within the framework of the first approach, forecasting is carried out from the present to the future on the basis of established cause-and-effect relationships;

-in the second approach, forecasting consists in determining the future goal and guidelines for moving from the future to the present, when a chain of possible events and measures that need to be taken to achieve a given result in the future, based on the current level of development of the organization, the administrative-territorial unit and the country in in general.

As indicated in fig. 1, the main objects of forecasting at the enterprise (firm) level are:

-the need for the company's products;

-the needs of the enterprise in production resources (material, financial, labor, information).

Forecasting is engaged in the development of forecasting methods. All forecasting methods (there are more than 100 of them) can be divided into two groups:

-informal (heuristic);

-formalized.

The informal ones include:

-individual expert assessments;

-script writing, etc.

Formalized methods include:

-extrapolation methods;

-modeling.

In forecasting financial indicators, a set of special methods and techniques is used, which are usually divided into three groups: methods of expert assessments, extrapolation methods, methods of economic and mathematical modeling.

The method of expert assessments is based on the processing of expert opinions on the dynamics of financial processes, identified through special procedures (questionnaires, interviews). Experts should be highly qualified specialists professionally engaged in the study and (or) management of the economy and finances of the company. The survey is carried out according to specially designed questionnaires.

extrapolation method. Its essence is to extend to the future trends that have developed in retrospect.

Consequently, the degree of applicability of the extrapolation method in the financial sector is determined by the degree of inertia (or stability) of the dynamics of the development of the economic system. The financial indicators of microeconomics are less inertial, therefore, they are less applicable at the level of economic entities. The dynamics of the development of financial indicators at the macroeconomic level is more inertial, and in these conditions the applicability of the extrapolation method increases. To forecast a system of financial indicators, the extrapolation method is usually used in combination with other methods.

Methods of economic and mathematical modeling are based on the construction of models that, with a certain degree of probability, describe the dynamics of financial indicators depending on the factors influencing financial processes. In this case, optimistic, pessimistic and most probable rates of changes in economic indicators are used (revenue growth, cost reduction per unit of output, unchanged tax rates, constant share of payments to the budget).

In the theory and practice of financial activity, calculation methods are becoming increasingly important, united under the general name "financial mathematics", or higher financial calculations, or financial and commercial calculations.

Methods of financial mathematics are based on the principle of non-equivalence of money relating to different points in time. Obviously, 10,000 rubles received in five years is not equivalent to the amount received today, even if we do not take into account inflation and the risk of not receiving them.

There is a famous aphorism “Time is money”. The inequivalence of two identical absolute value amounts due to the fact that the money available today can theoretically be invested and generate income in the future.

Methods of financial mathematics are widely used in banking and savings, insurance, work financial institutions, investment companies, stock and currency exchanges, in foreign economic relations.

financial forecasting heuristic formalized

LIST OF USED LITERATURE

1.Kovalev V.V. Introduction to financial management. M.: "Finance and statistics", 2013..

.A.G. Gryaznov. E.V. Markina Finance. Textbook. 2nd ed. - M.: Finance and statistics, 2012.

3.Finance of organizations (enterprises): Textbook. / Ed. N.V. Kolchina. - 5th ed., revised. and additional - M.: UNITY-DANA, 2011..

4.Enterprise Finance and Financial Management: 100 Exam Questions and Answers: Proc. allowance. / V.S. Zolotarev, V.Yu. Barashyan, E.N. Karpova, A.Ya. Cherenkov; Growth. state economy un-t "RINH". - Rostov n / D., 2009.

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